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Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6296
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 07:51 pm: | 
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Got a couple thousand shares of ARNA today with a limit order at 6.75. Kinda surprising to see when I got home today.
PH I just realized there is a ARNA subthread. You can move these if you want. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6283
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 30, 2010 - 04:31 pm: |
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Darn, ARNA is really running. Missed buying this morning by a few cents and it just kept going up. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6276
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, July 26, 2010 - 06:16 pm: |
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Next time I'm going to buy then post. All you frontrunners ran the price up today before I could buy. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6273
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, July 25, 2010 - 10:46 pm: |
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I'm buying but you do what you want to do.
Relative to VVUS ARNA's efficacy was slightly less but safety profile was superior. Of course VVUS got denied on safety not efficacy so...
Anyway I am going to buy and hold until the panel vote approaches and then determine if I hold or not thru the vote. With VVUS I was too late entering and then got nervous and sold after a 1 day hold period, of course it was a great 1 day time period. Going to hold ARNA longer so hopefully it won't take such precise timing. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12099
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, July 25, 2010 - 10:28 pm: |
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From following VVUS it seems ARNA has the best shot of being approved, but of course I thought VVUS was going to be approved as well.
So are you saying I should buy it or sell it short? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6272
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, July 25, 2010 - 09:29 pm: |
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I think ARNA has been discussed here before. I am going to buy some in the next week or so and hold thru there FDA approval process later this fall. From following VVUS it seems ARNA has the best shot of being approved, but of course I thought VVUS was going to be approved as well. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12059
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 11:11 am: |
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Yesterday, the options were predicting well over $20 on approval. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6258
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 10:49 am: |
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They might. I believe it has been done once or twice before. The panel comments yesterday were pretty bizarre. Many on the panel that voted no thought it should be approved but voted no anyway.
Anyway, IMO this stock is an avoid because there is way too much unpredictability. The only possible play would be some option play to take advantage of a surprise approval IMO. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12057
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 09:17 am: |
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Would the FDA approve after an advisory panel had rejected? Even if VVUS had the two-year data by October, wouldn't the FDA just throw it back to the panel? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6257
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 09:14 am: |
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The safety concerns surprised me. But luckily I am lazy and had already taken my 1 day profit and VVUS never really traded down prior to the panel vote to hit some low ball limits I had entered. I was hoping for a DNDN like day.
Qnexa is made up of two already approved drugs that are used in much higher doses than that in Qnexa and the side effects noted are similar to those noted with each individual drug although in a much smaller percentage of the patient population which seems to be expected with the lower dosing.
They also will have 2 year data prior to the OCT decision which may or may not help sway the FDA relative to safety concerns.
Longer term I don't think VVUS is that great of play if they don't get approval in OCT. The competition (two drugs) are very likely to get approval later this year as well and the competition will be fierce and if VVUS is the last one to the table it will not be pretty.
IOW it seems to me VVUS is only a play if one thinks there is any hope of approval in OCT.
I am avoiding from now on.
It is these kind of stories that I follow for a long time thinking the payoff may be worth it and then it seems that it rarely is. I guess DNDN and ABHH are the exceptions to this.
(Message edited by killernut on July 16, 2010) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12056
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 08:46 am: |
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VVUS looks very interesting - if it sells down much further, I think either selling puts or buying leap calls would be good.
The FDA panel did not seem to think efficacy was a problem, only safety, and they didn't think Qnexa was unsafe, only that VVUS didn't do a long enough study.
So Qnexa will be rejected by the FDA October 28 (if VVUS hasn't withdrawn it) while VVUS collects more data. Looks like there will be a decision in 2011, so January 2012 calls might be good.
In the meantime, I think I'm gonna short the stock... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12054
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 08:31 pm: |
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I have a weight loss pill that works every time I use it. This morning, I put it in my pocket and climbed 2000' up a nearby canyon. When I got back I'd lost 6 ounces of fat. 100% effective, and reusable, too.
(good job, K/N) |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6256
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 07:06 pm: |
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Glad i made it only a one day trade and didn't hold on. VVUS rejected by FDA panel. Way down in AH. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 977
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 13, 2010 - 10:47 am: |
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nice! |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6255
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 13, 2010 - 10:31 am: |
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Ha! about a 15% one day gain. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6253
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, July 12, 2010 - 09:35 pm: |
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anyone buying VVUS going into their FDA panel this week. I took a small 1500 share position late today. |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 650
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 01:33 pm: |
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Label is positive for widest possible use of P.
Best, Robert |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2695
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, April 13, 2010 - 09:22 am: |
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Wow, I never heard Adam F. lay into someone like that before. |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 641
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, April 12, 2010 - 04:23 pm: |
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PH: CTIC just had a scheduled shareholder meeting which was rescheduled. They can not even get enough shareholders to attend to get a vote authorized, hence no ability to vote to add more shares, etc. They have more money coming due than cash on hand, not enough money to fund another trial as requested by the FDA, etc., etc.
I am finding twitter as another excellent source of daily info as reporters "talk" to each other about days events.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10722744/1/cell-therapeutics-ceo-should-resign-op inion.html
This story by Adam F is unreal. I have decided I really like this guy.
Best, Robert |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11522
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, April 12, 2010 - 02:57 pm: |
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KERX managed to hold out over a year at the depths. Can CTIC do the same? |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2693
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Monday, April 12, 2010 - 02:43 pm: |
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Damn, after searching the archives, I guess I'm the one who came up with KERX. I hereby curse myself. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11520
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, April 12, 2010 - 02:39 pm: |
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I don't think it was me. You'll have to find some other reason to curse me... |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2692
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Monday, April 12, 2010 - 02:29 pm: |
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Heel,
I think it was you who brought KERX to our attention a couple of years ago. It took a plunge but I held and kept following it. My nephew actually bought 6000 shares at 0.25 last year because we still thought it had a chance to survive..I was cursing you before, but I want to thank you now. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11518
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, April 12, 2010 - 02:17 pm: |
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OK, O/H.... you said I should, so I did. I wouldn't be too surprised if they staved off b/k for a while by selling toxic converts... |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 640
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, April 12, 2010 - 01:45 pm: |
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Just sharing some news I am picking up. Mike Huckman from CNBC will be departing (probably) in the next few months. If you can find shares to short CTIC do so. The company is a GTZ.
Best, Robert |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 637
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 07, 2010 - 09:50 am: |
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Hi all: Here is the current list and dates of companies being reviewed by the FDA this year.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10719163/12/14-biotech-stocks-facing-fda-approval .html
Best, Robert |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 7091
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, April 01, 2010 - 11:30 am: |
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I've owned a tiny number of shares in this company for over ten years as the result of a stock buyout. I never bought more. In hindsight . . .
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EW&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= |
Warbucks
Registered Member
Username: Warbucks
Post Number: 81
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Monday, January 11, 2010 - 09:44 pm: |
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BJCT - Bioject Medical - just hit the jackpot with a Merial-Vical product they are in with a joint venture:
http://www.veterinarypracticenews.com/vet-dept/canine-practice/canine-melanoma-v accine-gets-conditional-ok.aspx
This medical approach, approved today by the govt., is a huge breakthrough in the medical world, the first theraputical vaccine blessed by govt. for cancer vaccine in dogs. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10795
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, November 21, 2009 - 02:55 am: |
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Killerunt?
That's not very nice, OH, unless you know something the rest of us don't... |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 614
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, November 19, 2009 - 03:20 pm: |
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Killerunt: From what I read VVUS is the best of the three, ARNA and (forgot the other one. The obesity market is huge, but don't forget about AMLN on this subject. See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/5f8dfe84-c792-11de-8ba8-00144feab49a.html?referrer_id= yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058&nclick_check=1
So, as you know I favor AMLN albeit the PPS is sorely a big issue. Of the three above I am short ARNA but am concerned it may rise on the tide. I will see.
I still believe AMLN is hugely undervalued, but overall I am very sad about management development; it reminds me of ICOS who had the world with Cialis but could not handle the marketing.
Best, Robert |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5985
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 17, 2009 - 04:52 pm: |
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OH,
any thoughts on VVUS? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5962
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, October 15, 2009 - 11:15 am: |
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anyone following ACOR? Been a real roller coaster the last week. Almost DNDN like in that rumors and some FDA posting data took it down hard, back up today of affirmative (yet not binding) panel vote, with official FDA response yet to come. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10543
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009 - 09:43 pm: |
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Super probably can. I can, too, but it will end up at the bottom... |
Tommytwo
Registered Member
Username: Tommytwo
Post Number: 259
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009 - 08:34 pm: |
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Sorry, my post was supposed to be on the DNDN thread. Can admin move it? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5929
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009 - 08:22 pm: |
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I actually bought some today. Freed up some cash by covering some of my short puts. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10539
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009 - 07:14 pm: |
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My call spreads are doing nicely. I think I'm already up over half of the potential gain... |
Tommytwo
Registered Member
Username: Tommytwo
Post Number: 258
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009 - 06:13 pm: |
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Traded as high as 29.79 today- on over 5X average volume.
I sold a few more, but now will hold and watch. The trading volume is a key signal to me that there is large demand and it just may continue upward until the investor conference. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10270
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 28, 2009 - 09:52 am: |
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An example of what can happen to a company with only one drug... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10009
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, June 12, 2009 - 11:28 am: |
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Yes, I saw. I shorted the $2.50 puts, then bought them back when I discovered that the FDA would likely react in June. Lost my commissions... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5855
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, June 12, 2009 - 11:12 am: |
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PH, shorting SVNT puts would have worked but not the way we originally thought.
quote:Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9728
Registered: 12-2003
Posted on Thursday, April 16, 2009 - 07:29 pm:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To generalize from SVNT, though.... it seems to me that a drug development company that has "big news" coming is a lock for shorting puts, as long as you know that the expiration is before the news comes out.
Anyone know of others?
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9727
Registered: 12-2003
Posted on Thursday, April 16, 2009 - 07:23 pm:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry, I don't see what you have in mind for the calls.
I certainly can see shorting the $2.50 puts. At $.45, that's a 92% APR. If you're sure the news is later than June expiration, that looks pretty good...
(Message edited by public_heel on April 16, 2009)
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5793
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Thursday, April 16, 2009 - 07:16 pm:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PH, take a look at SVNT and June calls. They expect news in July.
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Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2478
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Monday, June 01, 2009 - 09:09 am: |
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Is anybody else still holding KERX? Some positive data was just released at ASCO. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6199
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, May 22, 2009 - 10:23 am: |
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I'm thinking of buying some JNJ. No matter what happens with health care---of even if nothing happens---the world's gonna need bandaids. The dividend is currently 3.50%. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9805
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 29, 2009 - 06:35 pm: |
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O/H - I don't think I have ever seen a better pharma prospect... |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 589
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 29, 2009 - 06:27 pm: |
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PH: Buyout rumor mills are already in print.
I am going to change the buyout number to 100, but it is wild, ok.
Look at this.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8481266
Robert |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2439
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, April 21, 2009 - 03:56 pm: |
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I'm still holding KERX....Almost a double today....What is 2 X 0?  |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 579
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, April 19, 2009 - 03:02 pm: |
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PH: This particular trip was out to Temecula for wine tasting throughout the valley. We stayed at a place called Skinner Lake, which is a OK campground, nothing spectacular, but close.
Here is a link to the FDA schedule. I don't have at hand a list of phase three schedules for various companies as I rely on the newsletter data.
http://www.fda.gov/oc/advisory/accalendar/2009/2009accalendar.html
Enjoy your weekend.
Robert |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9734
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, April 17, 2009 - 09:41 am: |
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O/H - I hope you had a good weekend in your Airstream. Where do you take it this time of year? Joshua Tree? Death Valley? Compton?
Do you perchance know of any site that lists companies that are expecting Phase 3 results or, having finished Phase 3, are expecting FDA decisions? For instance, a month ago such a site would have listed DNDN as expecting study results between mid-April and mid-May... |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2426
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Saturday, April 04, 2009 - 09:46 am: |
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O/H,
I didn't know you were long ARNA too. Shorting may not be a bad idea, as they are basically a one drug company, and that drug looks like crap. |
