| Author |
Message |
    
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12342
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 02:05 pm: | 
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Auex being bought by Fronteer. That's a triple for me.... only took four years  |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 7650
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 10:36 am: |
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Buy High,Sell Higher? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6235
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 16, 2010 - 09:43 pm: |
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Yes, although my upside wasn't limited to 50% of my principle and mine wasn't a diversified metal. I bought one gold and one silver. I got mine in DEC '08? Price of gold was about $880 and silver about $18?
We talked about it at the time. I don't know how they do it. I assume use leverage, options, leasing, or somesuch. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11900
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 16, 2010 - 07:18 pm: |
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K/N - Was this the thing you were in on a while back?
Do you know how they can do this? Doesn't make sense to me... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11885
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, June 14, 2010 - 09:02 am: |
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Just another Congo, apparently.
BTW, a number of countries could become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium". There's so much of it that a mine has to be enormous - and extremely cheap to build and operate - in order to be at all economic. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 915
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, June 14, 2010 - 07:35 am: |
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US "Discovers" Nearly $1 Trillion In Mineral Deposits In Afghanistan
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-discovers-nearly-1-trillion-mineral-deposits -afghanistan |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11847
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, June 07, 2010 - 04:19 pm: |
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RBYC up 57% today!!! .36 to .57!!!
on 300 shares... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11690
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 17, 2010 - 04:10 pm: |
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A very small deal for them. Odd that they are buying equity, but I'd guess they will sell the equity once they get the silver stream.
Seems like a better deal for Ventana, as SLW likes their prospects so much that it wants to get in early. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 7240
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 17, 2010 - 03:53 pm: |
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Heel,
As we have not yet heard from you today, I'm thinking that maybe you're out on one of those trails again today with your Pulaski and your McCleod.
What do you think of this? Is it a good thing for SLW?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver-Wheaton-Acquires-Right-prnews-2589581425.ht ml?x=0&.v=1
I'm glad to see that your Sikh colleague is carrying her McCleod in the proper manner and not like a Marine carrying his rifle at right-shoulder arms. Safety first!
(Message edited by tychobrahe on May 17, 2010) |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 7216
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 10, 2010 - 01:54 pm: |
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I had to consult my trusty acronym dictionary to figure out what BION is.
YBBI! |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11644
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, May 07, 2010 - 01:01 pm: |
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Silver up 4% today, BION.... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 804
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, May 07, 2010 - 12:43 pm: |
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GLD VS GDX - clear gold outperformed vs miners. Same with silver.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=GLD&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=GDX |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 595
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 05:46 pm: |
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I have been buying GSL again. I think some of the government beurocractic gringos requires grease - greenback gringo grease - so that they can live like kings.
I think the dip is temporary.
I have made good money buying and selling GLS. I was caught with 2000 shares at the announcement. |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1262
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 11:45 am: |
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www.cycleprooutlook.com
Good read for gold bugs |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6182
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 05, 2010 - 04:16 pm: |
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When I originally acquired my Gold (edited to add - the physical gold I own, not my paper gold) I bought enough to pay my property taxes for about 7 years. With its current value I can pay my current property taxes for about 20 years.
Wonder what the ratio will be at $15K per oz????
(Message edited by killernut on May 05, 2010) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11624
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 05, 2010 - 03:16 pm: |
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$15k/oz?? Wouldn't that be something? I'd be rich, but I don't think my money would buy very much.
Seriously, though, $15k is just a matter of time, IMO. Maybe longer than I'll live, and apples will cost $10 apiece.... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6179
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 05, 2010 - 02:52 pm: |
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PH, I understand. I misinterpreted the chart.
I went back to see how close the Nasdaq data matches to the chart and there is a fair amount of smoothing done on the chart but it definitely went hyperbolic at the end.
quick data points I collected.
year 1 Feb 82 179 100%
...
year 10 Feb 92 633 354%
year 11 Feb 93 671 375%
year 12 Feb 94 793 443%
year 13 Feb 95 794 444%
year 14 Feb 96 1100 615%
year 15 Feb 97 1304 731%
year 16 Feb 98 1770 989%
year 17 Feb 99 2288 1278%
year 18 Feb 00 4696 2623%
so if you're convinced gold is going to hit bubble territory you are still in a very safe buy area and can expect to see somewhere between $5K to $15K per ounce. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11618
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 05, 2010 - 09:55 am: |
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I don't think it's totally bogus. It's an attempt to debunk the idea that Gold is in a bubble. It makes the point that bubbles go hyperbolic at the end, and Gold has not done that. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6178
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 11:06 pm: |
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PH, I saw that chart the other day. It makes no sense to me. How is it calculated? Use the max final bubble price and compare it to where it started and draw an exponential graph between the two points. Totally bogus IMO. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11617
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 07:51 pm: |
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Bubbles...
 |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11579
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, April 26, 2010 - 11:20 am: |
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GSL is really nailed by this. They thought they were all set to build a very profitable gold mine. This may illustrate a problem with Colombia, in that it's domestic problems retarded mining development until recently, and the rules are not clear, or maybe even not set.
Peru and Chile, which have been doing this for a long time, and are very mine-friendly, are safer bets. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 762
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, April 26, 2010 - 09:23 am: |
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GSL- looks like it's going to get cut in half. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 761
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, April 26, 2010 - 08:57 am: |
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GSL - Not halted now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greystar-Resources-Announces-ccn-2799439292.html?x =0&.v=1
Greystar Resources Announces Request by the Colombian Government for a New Angostura Environmental Impact Assessment |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 760
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, April 26, 2010 - 08:47 am: |
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tycho - GSL is halted. Any ideas?
"The following issues have been halted by Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC):" |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6998
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 03, 2010 - 03:35 pm: |
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I've always felt that it's a good idea to throw a whole bunch of ideas into the carbon-based computer . . . long-term, short-term, shots-in-the-dark, experience-based intuition, logically calculated, gut feelings, dartboard stock selection, etc.
I think 11Wall is a good place to see all of that(though I do wish we had input from a slightly larger membership and wish we still had the Round Table).
As I approach 7000 posts, ya got me really worried now about the dimwit doing most of the talking! 
(Message edited by tychobrahe on March 03, 2010) |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 544
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, February 26, 2010 - 08:28 am: |
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the difficult thing about a play like Oceanagold for me is that it's up 400% in a year. Being so short term focused, it's hard for me to give a lot of weight to the "value" if I think I'll be underwater even for just a month. My thought is I'll buy it when I think it's going to move.... so I miss a lot of good moves.
I met with a swing trader who quit her job last year to trade full time. She has great TA skills and discipline. I have more experience and I'm sure I make more money, but I left the meeting feeling like my methods are crude and amateur at best by comparison. I'm hoping to develop my style into a more calculated logic based approach, and a less from the gut shotgun approach.
I have no problem posting my shots in the dark, and looking dumb when they don't work. I do feel a little silly when I search the board and most of the posts are mine... you know the story, it's always the dimwit that does the most talking  |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11267
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 09:31 pm: |
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One more thing about OCG.TO... most of its debt is in the form of converts at $4.
Assuming, as I usually do, that near-the-money converts will find a way to be exercised, the stock has to double to get there... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11266
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 09:28 pm: |
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Milo - you and I need to figure out a way to merge our skills (I'm giving myself credit with actually having skills, just for the hell of it). I have trouble thinking short term and you have trouble thinking anything but short term... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 543
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 09:21 pm: |
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absolutely! I'll check it out. I just need to buy it and delete it off my screen so I don't sell it!! I bought a gold futures contact today thinking it may be time for a breakout again. We'll see. It just feels like the commodities want to run again and if the euro turns around at all.... hmmmm. Oil and S&P's up tonight.
THANKS AS ALWAYS! |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11265
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 04:35 pm: |
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If you are interested in a gold miner with limited downside and quite a bit of upside, you might consider OGC.TO (OCANF.PK).
They are already producing 300k oz/year from mines in New Zealand. Their market cap is very low because they are 2/3 hedged at much lower prices. However, they'll be able to get rid of those hedges in a year, and their profits will skyrocket.
In addition, they have a bigger property in the Philippines that was mothballed at lower gold prices but should be profitable now... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11264
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 04:25 pm: |
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Silver does have that one huge advantage over gold in that it isn't owned by central banks.
I see quite a few central banks unloading their gold (the U.S. is easily the world's biggest holder) in desperate attempts to shore up their economies over the coming years.... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 542
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 03:42 pm: |
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thinking about taking a crack at some silver stocks here. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6923
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 11, 2010 - 02:15 pm: |
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Anyone been watching AZC?
Silver Wheaton Buys Gold and Silver Resources |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6884
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 06:30 pm: |
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RGLD |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6882
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 03:43 pm: |
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When it was still around 13.75, I put in what I thought was a lowball bid for SLW at 13.55. It just filled about 10 minutes ago. So, I now own a bit of both SLV and SLW.
I'm still watching CVX. As it keeps going lower, its yield keeps getting higher. Other than maybe picking up some CVX for the dividend, I think I'm finished buying for awhile. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11138
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 12:24 pm: |
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If the $US goes down, PM's will go up. Not too much danger of that happening, in the short term. The $US is still considered "quality" as in "flight to quality", which is what is happening today.
Look at the long term, though. This is POG divided by $US Index.
 |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 441
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 12:10 pm: |
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"I continue to think our system itself in broken"
I agree. Not sure it will matter who's president over the next several years. It will happen either way. Obama is just the bad guy of the day for the markets. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6880
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 11:45 am: |
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It's hard to discuss these things without spilling over into politics. I understand that you were joking about Obama's second term, but, like most jokes, there is probably some element of truth in it. So . . . that $2000 gold you mentioned? Do you think this is going to happen even if we elect a fine Republican in 2012 and a new Republican majority that will rescue our financial system? In other words, is that all we have to do to get our great country back on course, elect a Republican president and give him a Rep majority?
I continue to think our system itself in broken, that our problems have nothing whatsoever to do with Democrat or Republican. That's what will bring us $2000 gold. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 440
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 11:20 am: |
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I think right now they are an asset class trading inverse to the dollar as the dollar theme is so en-vogue. I believe there will be an event or point in time it will decouple that relationship and PM's would be the preferred fight to safety vs the US dollar. This may happen in tandem with the confirmation of Obama's 2nd term. (joking)
I think we'll see $2000 gold in the next several years.
(Message edited by miloandbono on February 04, 2010) |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6878
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 11:05 am: |
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At the risk of appearing to be one of those clueless guys, if the $US goes down, what is likely to happen to PMs? |
Super
Moderator
Username: Super
Post Number: 1366
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, October 26, 2009 - 11:30 am: |
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Of course insider information has to contain information. Saying your company's stock might go up, but not necessarily right away, is not exactly what I would call information. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10717
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, October 26, 2009 - 08:23 am: |
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In the U.S., that would be a violation of Reg FD, in that it is material info not distributed to all. I don't know what the Canadian equivalent may be, but I understand that it is very laxly enforced, and widely violated by mining companies. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6599
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 09:02 pm: |
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As I think about it, perhaps it comes down to whether a senior person gives you information that the company has not yet given to the general public. As long as they're saying at shareholder meetings and PRs that they expect the stock to go up, then I guess it wouldn't be insider information for a manager to say that to an individual. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6598
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 08:56 pm: |
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I wonder if there'd be elements of insider trading with that. Would a senior manager have to give specific information about something that was going to happen or would just saying that the stock is going to move steadily ahead be enough?
I suppose that just saying that a stock is going to do well might not be considered insider information. I don't know.
On the other hand, I suspect there are people trading on insider information all the time. It's probably foolish to think otherwise. |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 563
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Saturday, October 24, 2009 - 11:29 pm: |
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Today I received a phone call from a senior manager within GSL.TO (on yahoo). I have known him over 10 years. He recommended strongly that I get invested here. He said it will not be meteoric but will move ahead steady.
I will be purchasing this stock on Monday morning, unless the price of gold drops significantly. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 115
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Sunday, September 20, 2009 - 08:43 am: |
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IMF selling some gold starting 9/27/09
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-selling-one-eighth-its-gold-reserves-will-s afeguard-against-disruption-gold-market
“I am delighted that the Executive Board has given its overwhelming backing to a strictly limited sale of Fund gold to put the financing of the IMF on a sound long-term footing, and enable us to step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries,” Managing Director Mr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn stated. “These sales will be conducted in a responsible and transparent manner that avoids disruption of the gold market. Most importantly, the sales are strictly limited to 403.3 metric tons, which is one-eighth of the Fund’s total holdings, so the IMF will continue to hold a relatively large amount of its assets in gold.”
The new income model is designed to provide the Fund with more diverse income sources that are better aligned with the variety of functions performed by the Fund, with a central component being the funding of an endowment with the profits from these limited gold sales. Resources linked to the gold sales will also be used indirectly to increase the Fund’s capacity to provide concessional loans to low-income countries (see Press Release No. 09/268).
The gold sales could be conducted on-market in a phased manner over time, following the approach adopted successfully by the central banks participating in the Central Bank Gold Agreement. Participants in the recently renewed agreement announced ceilings on sales of 400 tons annually, and 2,000 tons in total during the five years starting on 27 September 2009, and noted that the Fund’s sales can be accommodated under these ceilings. Hence, on-market gold sales by the Fund will not add to the announced volume of official sales. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 85
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 08, 2009 - 08:53 pm: |
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pretty boy Terranova likes it. I wish it would go straight to about $1300 so I don't have to think about it anymore. Wish I had bought silver the same day since it seems to be a higher beta.
It's at 1003.20 tonight...up from the close. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10483
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 08, 2009 - 05:17 pm: |
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And, of course, the consensus on CNBC is no one should buy Gold this high, and that Barrick "really doesn't want" to buy back its hedges, but that "it was forced to". |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10482
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 08, 2009 - 05:08 pm: |
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News just in the Barrick is going to float a huge offering and use the proceeds ($b's) primarily to buy back hedges. At first view, it looks very bullish for the POG, but I suppose it could mark a top, not least because a lot of the recent buying may have been due to people with inside knowledge getting in ahead of Barrick's announcement... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 83
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, September 03, 2009 - 02:30 pm: |
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MNB.TO up 11% today. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9381
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, January 30, 2009 - 08:56 pm: |
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Excellent interview about bm's and pm's and with some interesting ideas for junior miners... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9297
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2009 - 03:23 pm: |
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Gldn - that article is worthless. If Obama were to list the top 1000 things he's concerned about, the price of Gold would not be included. |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 487
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2009 - 02:19 pm: |
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I reread it...gold will go up. |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 486
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2009 - 02:07 pm: |
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Does anybody understand this? Will gold go up or dawn according to this writer?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_011409.html |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9289
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 13, 2009 - 11:24 pm: |
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will the Fed just print the money to "fund" stimulus and the like ?
Sure, but they already are doing that. although not like they will be.
If so, when that becomes common knowledge maybe gold will move up strongly
Seems that's what's holding Gold up as high as it is, that is, it's priced in to some extent.
For me, the long and the short of it is that Gold has a $400 downside and a $4000 upside. |
Cmac
Registered Member
Username: Cmac
Post Number: 658
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 13, 2009 - 10:01 pm: |
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Heel,
I bought I little gold a month or so ago. I'll just hold it. I asked you not long ago about how gold might do in a deflationary environment and it was hard to come up with a reason it would go up - save the eventual inflation that seems to be common knowledge as the Fed expands its balance sheet. On top of that, you noted, the $US seems likely to increase relative to most other currencies (esp. European) as we have bottomed on rates and they surely have more cuts coming.
When China no longer has an excess in current accounts, and no longer buys our treasuries; will the Fed just print the money to "fund" stimulus and the like ? If so, when that becomes common knowledge maybe gold will move up strongly. Then there's always the flight to gold when fear trumps all else. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5716
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 13, 2009 - 09:25 pm: |
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PH, That is one reason I think the inverse ultra Gold might be a play.
Truthfully I am not looking at making any big moves. Just hanging on realizing I really do not understand where we are in terms of economic activity and where it goes from here. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9285
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 13, 2009 - 08:00 pm: |
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This is not looking good...
The third lower high, also with lower lows. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9272
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 12, 2009 - 11:51 am: |
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Yes, the double-inverse ETF's have been abominable. So bad that I'd suspect they are cheating.
It could just be that the derivatives they are using can't handle the volatility. Maybe it's just impossible to do a decent job with a double-inverse fund.
I'm guessing that the bigger the underlying index, the easier to double-inverse it, so SDS should be best, followed by QID and TWM. |
Cmac
Registered Member
Username: Cmac
Post Number: 657
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Monday, January 12, 2009 - 09:36 am: |
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I quit using TWM later in the year in 2008 (except for a short-term trade) cause it just wasn't working. This article talks to the tracking of the double inverse ETF's and why they have performed so poorly as a longer-term strategy:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10454678/5/why-short-sector-etfs-arent-so-smart.h tml |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9270
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 10:52 pm: |
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K/N
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ProShares-Launches-First-bw-13731458.html
All four have tracked quite well, although they are only a month old. Most double-index ETF's have tracked poorly, and double-inverse ETF's have tracked very poorly, with DUG being an extreme example. One would almost think they all had the same problem, even though they supposedly tracked mutually exclusive indices. Something about the derivatives market? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5715
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 09:54 pm: |
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PH, What 2X ETF plays are you aware of for gold. I know DGP long. Are there others? What about short? Have you looked at their performance relative to golds price? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9142
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 16, 2008 - 06:10 pm: |
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K/N - Crosscurrents... I think Gold was up pre-Fed today entirely as a Fed play. Post-Fed, it had to go up, because the Fed gave the most inflationary (or reflationary, if you will) signals imaginable.
"Helicopter Ben" used to be a joke, but no longer. Who knows how this will affect the $US, or Gold? I can see Gold anywhere from $500 to $2000 a year from now.... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5693
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 16, 2008 - 04:24 pm: |
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PH, Interesting.
Did you read the latest Mauldin. Peter Schiff I think. Arguing deflation is the force that will have to be reckoned with for the next couple years? along with a rising $. But I also think he was pushing Gold as an investment theme.
I have a hard time seeing deflation as a long term problem. For that to occur Americans are going to have to change (or be forced) their lifestyles dramatically and I just don't see it. I keep harkening back to a former Mauldin piece that says the next boom industry will be the niche shops that can put together a good capital base and make nice yielding loans on solid long term assets. Makes sense to me. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9138
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 16, 2008 - 01:24 pm: |
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Can we have deflation and rising gold prices at the same time? Today might make one think it's possible.
Too good to be true, I'm sure.... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9120
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 05:22 pm: |
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On CNBC's Fast Money today, the options guy said that recent option buying indicates "people" think that Gold and gold stocks will be heading up after the New Year. He specifically mentioned AUY and GFI... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9115
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 01:25 pm: |
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Gldn - the problem with Silver right now is that it is at least as much an industrial metal as a precious metal. There is nowhere near the demand as an investment tool, or a store of value, that there is for Gold.
I own a bunch of silver miners, though. I might recommend SLW (which is not actually a miner, but more of a broker), and SSRI, which has over 1b oz. in the ground.
In either of these, you get more leverage than simply buying SLV (the Silver ETF). That can be good or bad... |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 472
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 01:14 pm: |
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A colleague at school was talking about Gold/Silver ratio. Historically he said it averages to 40:1. Right now he said it is 80:1, and when gold moves up, silver moves up faster to balance to 40:1
He recommended FR on the Toronto stock exchange. I will check this out |
Cmac
Registered Member
Username: Cmac
Post Number: 622
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 07:47 am: |
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FYI
ProShares Launches First Short and First Leveraged ETFs Tracking Gold or Silver
ProFunds Group, the world’s largest manager of short and leveraged funds,1 announced today that it is launching the first exchange traded funds in the United States to provide short or leveraged exposure to gold or silver. The four new ETFs will begin trading on the NYSE Arca today. They join a line-up of four other Commodities ProShares that launched last week.
ProShares Ticker Index/Benchmark Daily Objective*
Ultra Gold UGL Gold Bullion price, London p.m. fix 200%
UltraShort Gold GLL Gold Bullion price, London p.m. fix -200%
Ultra Silver AGQ Silver bullion price, London fix 200%
UltraShort Silver ZSL Silver bullion price, London fix -200%
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Cmac
Registered Member
Username: Cmac
Post Number: 620
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 03:30 pm: |
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Ok. Thanks. That's was pretty much what I was thinking, i.e that gold goes down. But it's hard to underestimate gold's appeal in an unsettled environment.(fear of everything else) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9028
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 03:11 pm: |
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Assuming deflation, I think Gold will drop, and a lot. I'm surprised that it hasn't already. I doubt that it'll go below $500, though.
I guess the two biggest things that push gold up are:
1) fear of inflation (not the fact of it, just the fear)
2) fear of everything else
Seems like (2) is what's in play right now. Trouble is, Gold is such a small market compared to stocks, bonds, and the major currencies, that's it's like a cork in a storm... |
Cmac
Registered Member
Username: Cmac
Post Number: 619
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 01:05 pm: |
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Heel,
Thanks. My question really wasn't framed very well. I see most of the scenarios where gold goes up in the mid to long-term. I'm trying to think of reasons in may not. US (or other) central banks selling inventory in size is certainly one.
The overwhelming consensus is for inflation to hit after all of the effects of stimulus and money creation work their way through in a year or two. Another scenario is at least in play; that we instead see a steady down trending or "flatlining" in real assets values. My question really is goes gold in that scenario. For consumers, the $US has more purchasing power today then a few weeks or months ago.
I don't want to engage in long-winded speculation, but what is a likely scenario for to gold if we continue in a deflationary environment in 2009? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9026
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 11:59 am: |
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if over the next 3 months commodities generally continue to trend down slightly and US$ index loses <5% ?
If commodities trend down, I don't think the $US Index will drop, as well, at least not in the next three months. After all, it only measures the $US's relative value, not its absolute value.
If the index does drop, though, I would guess that would indicate that deleveraging and the winding down of the carry trade are no longer supporting the $US. In that environment, stocks might be rising, and I think they'd take Gold with them, or at least take the gold miners.
Trouble is, that's the kind of convoluted logic one has to engage in to guess the short-term direction of Gold, so I usually don't bother, and stick to the very-long-term picture, out 5 years and more.
One huge factor in the medium to long term will be the behavior of central banks. Will they sell or buy? The U.S. is much more likely to be seller than buyer, and it has enough gold to absolutely sink the market (although I do not join the goldbugs in thinking that they want to drive the POG down).
Other central banks, though, might more than take up that slack. I'm thinking of China and the Arabs, in particular.
Finally, there's the question of what happens when the Feds can no longer support the budget deficits. Will the Fed monetize the debt? That would send the $US down the tubes, and drive the POG way up. If, on the other hand, the U.S. agrees to denominate new debt in something other than the $US, that will also drive the POG through the roof, not least because the new denominator might even be gold, or something tied to it (the goldbugs' opium fastasy). |
Cmac
Registered Member
Username: Cmac
Post Number: 618
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 11:10 am: |
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Heel,
How do think the POG might behave if over the next 3 months commodities generally continue to trend down slightly and US$ index loses <5% ? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9020
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 11:06 am: |
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Super - Another thing about kg's is that they are only 22-carat, unlike Mapleleafs and Eagles, which are 24-carat. They weigh a bit more, so have the same gold content, though....
(Message edited by public_heel on December 01, 2008) |
Super
Moderator
Username: Super
Post Number: 942
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 10:59 am: |
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ph - [I hope there's nothing wrong with kg's]
I think at one time there was a belief they were the export of the apartheid government, which is now gone. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9019
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 09:46 am: |
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Yes, all of that... the $US Index is up 1.8% from Friday morning, which is a big move. |
Cmac
Registered Member
Username: Cmac
Post Number: 610
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 08:51 am: |
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I suppose that it is due to weak economic news in China and Europe along with OPEC decision not to cut oil production driving down oil this morning. |
Cmac
Registered Member
Username: Cmac
Post Number: 609
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 - 08:25 am: |
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Heel,
Why is gold being sold off this morning ? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 8531
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, September 29, 2008 - 07:22 pm: |
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Tulving is sold out of all 1 oz. gold coins except for Krugerrands. I hope there's nothing wrong with kg's, because I have some... |
