| Author |
Message |
    
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12321
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, August 28, 2010 - 11:55 am: | 
|
Bill Fleckenstein is not really a stockpicker - at least not on the long side - but he has friends and connections who are, and who are very knowledgeable. A year ago, he picked a bunch of stocks and posted his reasons why. Since then, he has added considerably to his positions in most of these. At the request of readers, he is now updating his thoughts on these stocks, and I think it's an excellent read. I would also note that Fleckenstein is something of perma-bear, so he looks for multi-bagger returns based on conservative evaluations.
Note 1: I own EGD, AAG, TLR and MXY
Note 2: Symbols may be .V or .TO if only trading in Toronto
Note 3: All this from www.fleckensteincapital.com , which I have subscribed to for ten years and read every day
Orko The first one on the list from last year is Orko Silver (OK), which was trading for about $0.63 a year ago. As I disclosed in February, I sold my stock because of my position as a director of Pan American Silver. Orko and Pan American have an agreement that if Pan American likes the drilling results it gets on Orko's property, then it will build a mine. It was so cheap at 60 cents or so that I couldn't pass it up, but I then decided that the potential appearance of conflict was just too great, and thus I exited my position.
I am not able to comment on Orko's investment merits. My purpose in bringing this up is so that it will be crystal clear that I am not involved and folks are 100% on their own. If the drilling results are poor, Orko's stock is likely headed a lot lower, but if they turn out to be great the stock could head higher. However, those results won't be known for a while yet. This will be my last comment on Orko.
Andean American Next up is Andean American Mining (AAG), whose stock was $0.31 this time last year. For anyone wanting to know more, on July 18 my buddy, Comrade Kuppy, wrote an update of the company after his visit with management and his note should bring everybody up to speed. (I too visited the company in July and liked the new executives.) I would also encourage anyone who is interested to go to the Web site and look at the investor presentation, because it says quite a lot. The company has made excellent progress in terms of upgrading its management and moving forward with the (unique) debt financing it is trying to arrange.
If they can accomplish what they have set out to do -- and that is still a big if -- there is still quite a good deal of upside to come. As the company notes in its presentation, if everything goes as planned, the net present value of five years' worth of free cash flow discounted back at 10% would be $274 million -- versus a market cap of about $80 million -- or $3 a share. Of course, the project isn't financed, the mine isn't built yet, and a lot of variables can change, but that is an interesting data point to contemplate. The company believes that it will be able to pay the bank back in just one year. In any case, I added to my position in the last year, as I have with all of these ideas (ex Magma).
Timberline Resources The next company, Timberline Resources (TLR), was about $0.64 at this time last year. It actually had a big spike the day that I wrote about it, though I'm not sure why, since even if my comments mattered, they came out after the close. The company's Butte Highland project, which is being funded by someone else (an enormous asset to have, as it holds down shareholder dilution), is proceeding as planned. On September 24, 2009, the company issued a press release that noted that at $900 per ounce, if it hits its numbers (again, a big if), the net income to Timberline would be on the order of $14 million, which is pretty impressive for a company with a $60 million market cap. (At present, the mine's life is expected to be seven years, but that could be conservative.) Obviously, that would be four times earnings, but again all of these projections are speculative. Reality could turn out to be a whole lot worse (or better).
Recently, Timberline acquired another gold company, Staccato Gold Resources, and while I thought they overpaid and this wasn't something they absolutely needed to do, if in fact Timberline is right about Staccato's prospects, it could turn out to be a tremendous deal. I note that Staccato had an interesting list of shareholders. Those same shareholders are now owners of Timberline, so let's hope they stick around, as it is potentially an endorsement of what they saw at Staccato to begin with, since Passport Capital, Sprott Asset Management, and U.S. Global Investors are all capable operators in the mining arena.
Aeroquest The next company -- Aeroquest International (AQL) -- is probably the most speculative stock of the group by a fair margin (though nowhere near as binary as it was a year ago when it sold for about $0.47). Aeroquest's business benefits from mining exploration and in 2010 a lot of companies still had "2008 on the brain," and therefore did not really spend as much money exploring for deposits as they might (or probably should) have. To better understand the business, I would encourage folks to view the presentation on the company's Web site.
Its backlog has been building and the business has rebounded, but the nature of these types of companies is such that capacity utilization picks up and then margins expand (hopefully). The recovery has been a bit slower than I would have guessed, but it all makes some sense to me as to why. Currently at $0.58, the stock sells at a pretty fair discount to book value, which is a little over $1 per share. The market cap continues to be microscopic at $21 million.
As I said, the backlog has grown and the company has rebuilt its cash position, so if margins recover, which they ought to, there is still plenty of upside, as the stock price has not changed much in the last year, though its business has definitely improved. In 2009, the company had about $28 million in revenues, and this year they will probably be a bit better than that, although I don't think 2010 is going to show much profitability. Hopefully, 2011 is a different story. For perspective's sake, on $55 million in revenues in 2008 it earned $0.30 per share. It's difficult to determine where its revenues could go and how much money it could make, other than to say its prospects are substantial, especially if base metals exploration picks up, which it almost certainly has to at some point.
I should note that Timberline has a drilling business as well (although that's not the reason I own it), which has also seen activity pick up dramatically. Its margins have not increased yet, but they seem poised to do so prospectively. So, industry-wide, it appears that the macro backdrop is improving.
Energold Next we have Energold Drilling Corp. (EGD), which sold for $2.18 this time last year. I would encourage folks to review that company's Web site as well. It may sound silly to say this about a small company, but I think this (and EPM) might be the blue chips of the group. I had a chance to meet the CEO, Fred Davidson, in Canada recently, and he is the kind of guy one would want to be in business with. What is remarkable is that through the nasty 2008-09 downturn in the mining exploration business, Energold has been expanding its drilling fleet and growing by about 30% a year. A few years ago it only had about 30 rigs (which the company builds itself). Now it has 94 and is on the way to 100 this year.
In a press release yesterday, the company reported Q2 results and noted that it drilled more meters in the quarter than it ever had before by about 20%. The gain was an increase of 58% sequentially and 151% year-over-year. Energold has also seen its capacity utilization increase before pricing (though I believe its pricing will improve). More importantly, margins have already expanded to 23.8% from 14.7% in the last quarter. What's amazing for a company that is so well managed and been able to grow in a tough environment, it is not expensive. Book value is about $1.74 per share and it has plenty of cash. What remains to be seen is how much it can earn as it raises prices. (An analyst who follows it thinks it could earn $0.27 next year. I think it could do even better.)
Energold also has an investment in an interesting -- though tiny -- silver company called Impact Silver. Folks who would like to learn more should really see the presentation available on its Web site. The great thing about its business is we don't have to worry about any of the vagaries of the mining industry, such as increased taxes, complications with ore grades, or production snafus, etc. Energold benefits if companies need to do more exploration drilling, which they all do.
Magma Energy The next company is Magma Energy (MXY). It traded at about $1.95 a year ago, so it has declined quite a lot in price. I noted at the time that it was very expensive and is probably the hardest company to draw a bead on. The company acquired -- or thought it had acquired -- an Icelandic geothermal producer called HS Orka, but the pop signer Björk has managed to stir up the pot in Iceland enough to threaten this deal. In classic ignorant fashion, Björk has decided it's OK to change the terms of the deal after it has been agreed upon.
Nonetheless, the thing to focus on with Magma -- and no one should attempt to understand this without looking at the presentation on the Web site -- is that this is an investment predicated on the quality of the management and the concept that geothermal is the form of "alternative" energy production that actually makes sense, since once it gets up and running it essentially lasts forever. The problem is, how do you evaluate a company that is in the process of building out its assets, a key part of which is under a political cloud? That is something I can't answer, thus, this is the only company on my list where I haven't increased my position, since I'm waiting for some sort of clarification before I decide what to do.
One of the Canadian brokers has peered out into the future and, based on what it sees for discounted cash flow down the road, the net present value it thinks the company should have -- based on comparables -- is $2.70 per share. To me, that is an awful lot of arm waving (and I don't put much faith in it), but one advantage that Magma does have is that it will be able to debt finance a lot of its projects, so there needn't be a lot of shareholder dilution. In any case, as I said, this is a bit of a blind stab based on management and the prospects for the geothermal industry.
Evolution Petroleum The next company is Evolution Petroleum (EPM), one of the big winners from last year. It is a small exploration and production (E&P) company that is engaged in grass roots development of E&P projects. As it explains very well on its Web site, its game plan involves leasing undeveloped acreage, proving it up, then selling part of the project, as it did with its primary asset, Delhi Field, which it sold to Denbury (a terrific operator).
The stock traded at $2.72 a year ago and recently touched $6 before backing off to its current level of just over $4. One of the proximate causes, as I understand it, is one of the larger shareholders has managed to get himself sideways and faced a margin call. His holdings appear to have been liquidated in a rather heavy-handed fashion, thus the weakness. (See today's action, for instance, which I took advantage of.)
Based on projections that I've seen, from someone who has crunched the numbers, that asset alone could generate $5 a share in cash flow in five years, and if you discount the income stream, the present value is worth something on the order of $12 a share. Again, these projections are just that, and while some may be sounder than others, they are ultimately just estimations.
The company has three other worthwhile projects that seem to be moving along, and if you used various different methodologies you could convince yourself that they could be worth an additional $7 or $8 a share. The bottom line is there is a hell of a lot of potential here. It is a very well managed company and I don't think it has a lot of risk. On the other hand, this investment is dependent on the price of oil, which is a function of world GDP growth, which means that this is not a pure money printing beneficiary idea. That said, based on what I know, this is a great way to be exposed to the oil business and it certainly beats owning a static barrel of oil.
eLoyalty Lastly we have eLoyalty (ELOY), another stock that has declined in value -- at this time last year it was $8.45 -- and one that is a little tricky to get your head around. It basically has two software businesses, one called Integrated Contact Solutions (ICS), which is basically a CRM consulting services business (and is for sale); and the other is Behavioral Analytics, which is the crown jewel of the company and grew 41% year-over-year last quarter. (The investor relations component of the Web site isn't too helpful, but the BA portion is very informative.)
With a market cap of about $90 million, if it can sell the ICS business for $50 million (a reasonable guess), that plus the cash means you'd be getting the analytics business -- a company that could be growing 40% a year with what will be solid margins and a very strong recurring revenue stream -- for free. Behavioral Analytics has about a $70 million backlog and its current annualized run rate is about $25 to $30 million -- $40 million appears to be about where the breakeven point lies.
The beautiful thing about this business is it allows companies to data mine voice traffic. Its customers are monster enterprises -- HMOs, insurance companies, banks -- which can use this service for a variety of projects, from antifraud to customer service, just to name a couple. The potential is enormous, but like the drilling industry, eLoyalty's business has been slow to build. It has received orders from big accounts, but the penetration inside those accounts has been very slow to ramp up, as companies everywhere are somewhat on the cautious side. This has been a bit slower to develop than I might have thought, but the upside is huge, though it's hard to point to exactly how events might unfold until the company makes more sales. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6315
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 09:29 pm: |
|
Interesting stock that I picked up from IV.
CAS.to - Cascades paper.
good overview
http://www.cascades.com//client_file/upload/pdf/factsheet_overview_en.pdf
seems like a relatively cheap way to play the paperboard industry particularly if inventories stay at record low levles. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12110
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 09:47 am: |
|
There was a relationship between getting rid of the debt but not rightsizing? Some agreement with the union? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6279
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 08:34 am: |
|
I think F made a strategic decision. Keep the debt but really right size the company via workforce reductions, produce smaller cars vs. trucks and SUVs, tough negotiations with unions, etc. vs. cut down on the debt and not right size the company as GM and Chrysler seems to have done. IMO F chose correctly.
I think it helps that F has the better cars and a were ahead of the curve on more fuel efficient cars. I still think that GM will cease to exist in a decade or so. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12109
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 06:54 am: |
|
I've never understood why Ford chose to stay out of b/k, and how it can compete w/o getting rid of its debt, as GM did. If anyone could explain... |
See2see
Registered Member
Username: See2see
Post Number: 114
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 11:59 pm: |
|
I'm holding F and wondering how far it can go. I like the new cars and I like the management, but they didn't get to offload debt like their competitors. Meanwhile all the cars on the road are aging and people will want to get something both newer and more efficient.
But when do you get off this ride? 20 dollars? 25 dollars? 15 dollars? Or just sell calls every month that are out of the money and let it happen. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1025
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 08:06 am: |
|
CMI again. They beat so the stock is popping. I've got almost $6 in a week and I'll have to do something with it. I'll sell part or cover it. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1016
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, July 23, 2010 - 10:57 am: |
|
I put a little money on playing a breakout in CMI this morning. I bought just under $76. I think it will go to $80 and earnings may bump it further...
I feel good about the breakout but I have no idea about earning that I believe are on Tuesday. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 7005
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 - 06:46 pm: |
|
After VASO, MIR was my second biggest loss of the decade of the O's. That tends to make me never look at a stock again. I'll probably miss an opportunity that way some day. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11323
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 - 05:35 pm: |
|
MIR - Any thoughts on this one? The gold-bug, market-bear, libertarians at Casey Research think this one is going to $46 in the next 1-2 years.
To me, it at least looks like a good candidate for repeatedly selling front-month covered calls.
The potential impact of new regulations helps explain why Mirant is still so cheap, as it currently generates more than 80% of operating profits from its four mid-Atlantic coal plants. But less than impressive fourth-quarter earnings are probably a bigger factor for the stock price – a reported loss of $104 million, or $0.71 per share, compared to Q4 income of $3.93 per share the year before. For all of 2009, Mirant reported net income of $494 million, or $3.41 per share, down from $6.11 per share in 2008.
On its face, the 59% earnings drop looks like a cause for concern. But if we take out unrealized gains and losses (a better way to compare operations across time), we find that adjusted income actually increased 43.1%, to $3.09 per share in 2009, compared to $2.16 per share in 2008. Further, net cash from continuing operations in 2009 increased 19.4%, to $808 million.
And last but certainly not least: Mirant is currently trading at less than cash! The company has $13.47 of cash per share, but you can buy a share for only $12.56, a 6.8% discount – now that’s a deal. For subscribers new to the play, buying a company at less than cash is an easy decision, keeping in mind that we do consider the company speculative. There is risk here. But the combination of Mirant’s assets, strategy, management, and expected free cash flows suggests
(Message edited by public_heel on March 05, 2010) |
Afterburner
Registered Member
Username: Afterburner
Post Number: 869
Registered: 11-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 - 01:34 pm: |
|
I agree with Heel on stockholder rights plans, and would add this is also sometimes done to cause problems for short sellers, to try to boost the stock price at least temporarily, etc. I get a negative feeling toward management when they start doing this BS because it tells me they're focused on the wrong things, and that they put their personal interests above those of the company or shareholders. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11318
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 - 11:19 am: |
|
"stockholder rights plan" is just code for "gambit to keep the company from being bought and management fired"
It has always been that way, although I don't really see how this makes a significant difference. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 7002
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 - 10:54 am: |
|
Heel(or anyone),
What's your view of stockholder rights plans like this? A good thing? . . . neutral? . . . desperation?
With this and a pretty good report, GMO's up big-time today.
GMO - Co announced that its board has adopted a stockholder rights plan. Under the Plan, each common stockholder of the co at the close of business on March 15, 2010 will receive a dividend of one right for each share of the co's common stock held of record on that date. Each right will entitle the holder to purchase from the co, in certain circumstances described below, one one-thousandth of a share of newly-created Series A junior participating preferred stock of the co for an initial purchase price of $15.00 per share. The rights distribution will not be taxable to stockholders and the distribution of rights under the Plan are not expected to interfere with the co's business plans or be dilutive to or affect the co's reported per share results.
(I've been holding this one for some time and I'm still a bit underwater. Still holding, though.) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11108
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, February 01, 2010 - 08:29 pm: |
|
Praca = Plaza
Interesting that the Portuguese substitute an r for the l. I'll have to see if that's a common consonant-shift between Spanish and Portuguese.
I don't like MNB's recovery rates at all. They're flat-out terrible. I think they may be affecting the stock price more than the fact that they're hitting lower-grade ore first. That happens all the time in mining, and people should expect it. The lousy recovery rates are something else entirely... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 400
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, January 28, 2010 - 11:39 am: |
|
Mom always said to stay away from POT! Now I know what she means 
Markets are breaking the magic 1085 in the S&P the "boys" been taking about. We'll see what happens. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6842
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 28, 2010 - 10:32 am: |
|
POT down over 6% to 102 today. Selling at 122 has turned out to be one of my best sells ever.
I guess the reality has brought me into your camp, Milo. I wouldn't even think about buying after this huge one-day drop. IMHO, it could see 90 or below in the next month. Guess that means I think it's scary now? :-)
(Message edited by tychobrahe on January 28, 2010) |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6770
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 06, 2010 - 03:56 pm: |
|
I'm out of pot!
This morning when it was still around 119, I put in an order to sell POT at 122. I didn't really think it would get there. It did. I'm out of POT |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10958
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 29, 2009 - 07:05 am: |
|
For anyone interested in (mostly) smallcap ideas, Tobinator's (from IV) newsletter is out for December. Toby's newsletter is mostly about PM mining stocks, but the "reader recommendations" I'm referring to - starting on Page 45 - are all over the board. To get on the mailing list for this quarterly newsletter, got to www.heavymetalinvestor.com
|
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 315
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 09:06 pm: |
|
I watch Turkey and Indonesia mainly because of Tim Seymour on Fast Money. I think he's pretty bright and has a lot of international experience. I plan to add some of those my portfolio at some point. I'm in no hurry. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6737
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 07:59 pm: |
|
From a Heel post in May '09:
T/S - POT has the same spiel every time.
The population of the world is going up.
Much of that population is getting richer, and demanding "inefficient" food, like beef.
The amount of land being farmed is going down.
The natural fertility of that land is dropping.
Therefore, the world needs more fertilizer, every year.
Now they've added a new twist; that because farmers didn't buy much fertilizer last year, they're going to have to buy more this year. I'm not sure they're entirely wrong about that. Though I sold my trading position at 120, I'm still holding my core position and intend to keep holding well into 2010. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6736
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 07:49 pm: |
|
Milo,
Were it not for the possibility of devastating terrorist attacks or, alas, even a nuclear exchange with Pakistan, India would be a place to be, it seems. Maybe it is anyway, I don't know.
I sort of like Thailand. Anyone have a country that they think looks particularly promising?
I owned a South Korean mutual fund for several years and did fairly well with it. Some are saying that today SK isn't an emerging market anymore, that it's a developed market. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6735
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 07:28 pm: |
|
Seems like there are ETFs for just about everything these days!
If one believed the US dollar was going to be seriously falling in coming months, what about a currency ETF; something like FXF, UDN, or, if one liked Brazil, BZF? |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 313
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 07:13 pm: |
|
I owned several foreign ETF's this year and got out way too early. They seem to pull back harder than say the S&P and I tend to think we are due for a pull back. I own a tiny bit of INP which is an India ETF. I bought it under $30 this year and sold most before it hit $40... I feel like an idiot when I look at that account and that trade (25 shares and 112% profit). I didn't hold anything long enough this year. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10944
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 05:50 pm: |
|
My guess would be that "Vale" is Brazilian shares. Maybe that's a way of being roughly currency-neutral, although I don't know why they would want to be... |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6734
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 03:39 pm: |
|
OK, at the risk of appearing to be as ignorant on this foreign investing as I really am, what would you say is the difference between Vale and VALE S.A. ADS? Vale is listed at 9.46% of assets for EMZ and VALE S.A is listed at 7.07%
Does this mean 16.53 in the company called Vale?
I'll take a closer look at EMZ. Maybe that would be a good way to add a bit of foreign exposure. Thanks.
Everyone and their grandmother seems to be expecting a strong recovery in Brazil in 2010. That's always a bit of concern to me, when everyone and their grandmother thinks something. Sometimes they're right, though, at least for a while.
(Message edited by tychobrahe on December 26, 2009) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10943
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 02:57 pm: |
|
I think VALE is more a bet on the world economy, particularly China, than on Brazil.
You could just buy EWZ, which is about 40% PBR and VALE, anyway... |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6733
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 02:21 pm: |
|
Brazil?
OK, instead of an emerging market fund or ETF, I'm thinking of taking a bit more individual country and stock risk and buying a small amount of both PBR and VALE.
Any thoughts on this? |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6732
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 12:09 pm: |
|
Emerging Markets? . . .
Mutual fund or ETF?
Any thoughts? |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6676
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, December 03, 2009 - 04:08 pm: |
|
And how does a client who follows these upgrades and downgrades, if there is such a thing, go from selling to holding without buying?
If I was running Tycho Whatever, I'd have a numeric system of recommendations, with 1 being sell and 10 being buy. Tycho Whatever would rate POT at 8 right now. I think 2010's going to be a pretty good year for fertilizer. It won't be long before a good 2010 will be in the stock price, but I don't think it's there yet. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10856
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, December 03, 2009 - 04:00 pm: |
|
I wonder how Dahlman rated POT as it was falling from $240 to $50... |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6675
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, December 03, 2009 - 03:42 pm: |
|
So all the time POT has been moving up from the low 80s, Dahlman Whatever has been saying to sell it. Now that it's at 120, they've decided that it should be held.
Does anyone actually pay attention to these upgrades and downgrades, and, if not, why do they even do it?
What's Dahlman Whatever going to do, upgrade POT to "buy" when it gets to 130? Isn't Dahlman Whatever at least a little embarrassed about making such a bad call?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=POT |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2485
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 09, 2009 - 01:52 pm: |
|
This is probably why nothing companies like HRAY have been moving lately..
http://www.thedeal.com/corporatedealmaker/2009/01/chinas_41b_telecom_stimulus.ph p |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6235
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 03, 2009 - 11:47 am: |
|
I've been watching FLR for a couple of weeks, might buy a bit on a good downside move. Anyone have thoughts on FLR? |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6234
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 03, 2009 - 11:42 am: |
|
Tree,
Somehow I missed your post until just now. FWIW, I'm still holding POT. Thought about selling when it was 110 and didn't. Then thought about it again at 120 and again didn't. As you suggested recently, I think it still has a bit more to go. I'm not married to it though. I'm watching closely for a place to bail. |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2477
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 27, 2009 - 04:25 pm: |
|
P/H,
Quite right, I read the story on MON and somehow it morphed in my mind to POT. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9931
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 27, 2009 - 03:50 pm: |
|
I can't find news on POT. The ag's are all down, apparently in sympathy with MON, but I don't see anything specific to POT.
Just looks like a market darling undergoing a little profit-taking... |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2476
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 27, 2009 - 03:31 pm: |
|
Tycho,
POT had a bit of a bad report today. Did you sell or are you still holding? |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2458
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Friday, May 15, 2009 - 12:20 am: |
|
FWIW, Someone on Fast Money was also very bullish on POT tonight. The talking heads seem to be all giddy about it. If I owned it I'd try to get a little more out of it before selling. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6175
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:52 pm: |
|
Tree,
I got the impression he was talking about worldwide. He mentioned specifically the growing populations of China, India, and, I think, Brazil.
I bought this in November at 67. Today it closed at 107. I always thought it would see 100 again, but I didn't think it would be this soon. I put in a order today to sell at 110 but it never got there. I not eager to sell though. We'll see what happens, how far this current run goes. It's getting a lot of press; CEO on TV, lots of Fools talking about it, analysts raising targets, etc. After a bit more of this might be a good time to take profits. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9880
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:28 pm: |
|
T/S - POT has the same spiel every time.
The population of the world is going up.
Much of that population is getting richer, and demanding "inefficient" food, like beef.
The amount of land being farmed is going down.
The natural fertility of that land is dropping.
Therefore, the world needs more fertilizer, every year. |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2457
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:28 pm: |
|
Tycho,
Did he say it would be a worldwide food crisis, or one that is specific to a particular region? |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6172
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:35 am: |
|
POT CEO was on with Kernan. He said that we're in a food crisis, or at least heading for one. But, as we can only deal with one crisis at a time, we're not thinking much about a food crisis.
POT stock, by the way, has been on a tear, currently at about 105. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9722
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 09:09 pm: |
|
Tycho - As for inflation when we "come out", if we ever do, it really depends on the commodity.
Copper should do well, and probably nickel, zinc, molybenum, etc.
Oil should also do well, although that may depend on how long the coming-out waits. I think the world is moving away from oil, even at its current low prices, and five years from now we may see the beginnings of a permanent glut.
Ag commodities may do well even without a recovery in the general economy. More mouths all the time... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9721
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 08:59 pm: |
|
Serious inflation is an absolute certainty. It's just a question of when.
We have $4T in Federal deficits coming up, and it could even be worse. More will follow. And all that's before the real blowup, which is the Baby Boomer retirement.
The people who've been funding deficits one fifth that big (Chinese, Japanese, Arabs) all have to keep their money at home. We are headed for an unimaginable funding crisis.
The Fed will create the money to buy all that debt. When they start creating over a $Trillion per year, the $US will tank... hard. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5791
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 08:48 pm: |
|
Tycho, I'm not sold on the inflation view coming out of the recession. I know that is a popular view but it seems to be that the money being thrown at the downturn has yet shown that it will end the downturn let alone create large inflationary pressure coming out of it.
That said, I still hold quite a few positions that if inflation does take hold should do quite well. I'm just not sure I will put a hole lot more into those plays for some time. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6094
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 08:34 pm: |
|
No reason. I just happened to be thinking about ETFs.
What do you think about the likelihood of serious inflation when and if we come out of this whatever-we're-in? I'm thinking this might be a good time to pick up a bit of "stuff", whether in ETFs or MFs. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9718
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 07:10 pm: |
|
Tycho - Why not a mutual fund? |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 6092
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 11:28 am: |
|
A commodity ETF for a 1-2 year time frame? . . . |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 5976
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 11:36 am: |
|
Fertilizer companies and gold, about the only things that were up on Friday. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 5831
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 11:27 am: |
|
With the price of oil down, there are some solar stocks that are down around six month lows. Anyone think there's an opportunity here? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9042
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 03:10 pm: |
|
More on CENJF - they are currently guiding 20k bbl/day by the end of 2009. At current prices ($45), they can still make at least $20/bbl. Annualize that - $145m - and you have 40% over their current market cap.
The royalty/tax situation is somewhat complicated, because it depends on whether capex has been paid back yet. Their bottom line in 2010 might equal their market cap. It could be less, due to the taxes, or it could be quite a bit more, due to new drilling. Any way you look at it, it's a cheap stock.
Of course, all this depends on OPEC being something other than the collection of feckless morons they have been throughout their history, and actully putting a floor on prices... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9041
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 12:50 pm: |
|
I'm slowly buying gold and gold miners (GLD and AUY). I'm buying SRS and TWM on days the market is up. Same for SPY Dec '09 puts.
On the positive side, I've been buying CENJF (CEN.TO) down around US$1.07. Of course, they can go to zero, but I think it's just as likely they'll go over $5. If OPEC ever gets their act together, and stabilizes Oil at $60+, CENJF should do very well.
Here's a post from Crucible on IV. As usual, when he likes something, he really likes it, and he's presenting the best case. |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 5705
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 12:37 pm: |
|
I'm curious. What are you doing in the current environment? . . . buying, selling, shorting, hedging, waiting . . . |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9039
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 12:23 pm: |
|
re POT and AGU... I would want to wait and see what they can sell their products for early next year. Right now, the market is pricing these stocks almost as though they were base-metal miners... |
Tychobrahe
Registered Member
Username: Tychobrahe
Post Number: 5704
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 12:11 pm: |
|
In an article yesterday called "Dream Stocks for Contrarian Investors", Motley lists two stocks that have some interest here; SU and POT.
The rest of the list:
AGU
NE
ATHR |
|
Newsletter