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Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 442
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 12:41 pm: | 
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I see. thanks!! I had no idea. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11140
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 12:31 pm: |
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It's not the EU. It's China that's the real concern.
COMS scheduled their shareholder vote for the day after the Chinese "should" have approved the deal. The Chinese decided they needed another 90 days (extendable, of course). They have no good reason for stalling, other than that a Chinese company wanted to buy COMS a while back and was somehow thwarted.
Whether the Chinese will just "send a message" and approve in a little while, or flat-out block the deal is anyone's guess... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 439
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 10:32 am: |
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3COM - Looks like the shareholders blessed the deal. Anyone concerned about the EU approving it? I believe they have until Feb 12th.
I would have thought the spread would come in a little the closer we got.
Tempted to add to the position since I'm mostly cash. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11086
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 - 07:46 pm: |
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I have done research up the wazoo on this, and still track every change. However, what was a license to steal ten years ago has devolved into something that's pretty much ignorable. |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1050
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 - 07:48 am: |
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PH has done research on this, and they tend to go up in the period immediately preceding addition to the index. He may want to share his findings again. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 396
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 - 07:32 am: |
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thanks siv! I own a little in a retirement account I don't control. It's been a real dud the last year so I guess it's playing catch up. I have no regrets about selling my trading position. I could have very easily sold it at a lower price this week.
It will be interesting to see how it tracks with the S&P 500 once it's in. |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1049
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 - 03:34 am: |
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OK, we now know the reason for sure. Today's news:
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will soon join the S&P 500 and S&P 100 stock indexes after it acquires Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., Standard & Poor's said Tuesday.
Buffett's company will replace BNSF in both indexes after shareholders approve Berkshire's acquisition of the railroad company next month.
Berkshire shareholders agreed to split the company's Class B stock 50-for-1 last week, and that move gave Buffett's company enough liquidity to meet S&P's criteria. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 387
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 01:15 pm: |
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thanks siv! eom |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1041
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 11:12 am: |
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Perhaps the reason it went up over the last month is simply all the free press. Everyone has taken the opportunity to talk about it. Historically, they have done well. That talk is a boost to the stock.
Good profit on the sale Milo! |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 384
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 10:35 am: |
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I sold it. If the entire market rolls over, it will too. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11058
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 10:35 am: |
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I guess the share price might have been the reason it wasn't in. Maybe S&P sees it more as a mutual fund than a real company, though. I realize they own entire companies, but aren't most of their investments just partial ownership positions? |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 383
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 10:25 am: |
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not an expert on this but I thought maybe liquidity and share price was holding it back. Now that's it's $70.... There has been a lot of buzz that it may replace Burlington. I'm guessing you have heard this and don't believe it??? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11057
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 10:18 am: |
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Why would it go into the SPX if it hasn't already? |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 382
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, January 21, 2010 - 10:02 am: |
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Bought 10 Berkshire B shares about a month ago betting the split would fuel the stock. I've got about 8% in profit mostly in the last few days. I don't know if I should hold them hoping it will go into the S&P500???? I'm a little lost and I can't see a chart. I know it's underperformed over the last year. I'm not a Berkshire bull. Anyone have any thoughts? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10970
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 30, 2009 - 03:04 pm: |
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A Feb 1 close would be a 66% annualized gain from here... 
(Message edited by public_heel on December 30, 2009) |
Gap
Registered Member
Username: Gap
Post Number: 1184
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 30, 2009 - 02:49 pm: |
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COMS shareholder meeting/vote is Jan 26.
Mergers often close shortly after shareholder approval. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6015
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 22, 2009 - 11:15 pm: |
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My December options adjusted a couple weeks ago as well. The pricing was screwy for a few days then settled down to be pretty consistent the last few days prior to expiration. They traded as a couple pennies the last few days prior to expiration. I would expect yours to be a bit higher. Mine had asks as high as $4+ just a few days prior to expiration but never traded close to that. Really screwed up my account balances for awhile.
to clarify. my adjusted options were 1.3664 shares of S per option (technically that would that be 136.64 shares of S per option) plus a tiny amount of cash.
(Message edited by KillerNut on December 23, 2009) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10928
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 22, 2009 - 09:20 pm: |
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K/N - Except that the options ending after December just change to "adjusted" versions, essentially options on S. They'll last until their expiration dates... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6014
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 22, 2009 - 09:00 pm: |
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Ended up about 1.3664 * S. Just a hair above $5 last Friday. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10925
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 22, 2009 - 07:21 pm: |
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My March $5's are quoted at $.06 - $1.03, which is to say they aren't really trading. I don't remember the terms, so I don't know what they're worth. I guess I'll have to wait for them to expire and hope S doesn't fall off the table... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6013
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, December 22, 2009 - 06:59 pm: |
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Well the VM/S short puts play that I entered expired worthless last weekend. All in all nice to make 100% profit but my account makes me hold way to much reserve to make it worthwhile unless you plan on just holding cash as I thought I would do when I entered the play.
(Message edited by KillerNut on December 22, 2009) |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 258
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 - 02:29 pm: |
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I completely agree. I owned Schering-plough preferred months ago when the Merck Deal was announced... I bailed on the pop. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10841
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 - 01:43 pm: |
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I really should have been keeping track of all the "sure thing" non-PE deals like COMS/HPQ over the last few years. It seems like there's always an inexplicable sell-down following the announcement.
My rationalization is that the prior holders have big profits already, and their reasons for holding the stock have disappeared. They may think they'll hold on for the full buyout price, but once the price start slipping, they decide to take their big profits and go somewhere else.
The people who want to buy (the Big Boys, at any rate... not me) are smart enough to wait a while until the prior holders have bailed out and the selling is over. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10840
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 - 12:53 pm: |
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Not a little. Also sold some July $7.50 puts.
(Message edited by public_heel on November 30, 2009) |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 257
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 - 12:51 pm: |
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you buying a little COMS betting the deal is in the bag? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10838
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 - 12:24 pm: |
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COMS - Ask is all the way down to $7.37, while HPQ's buyout price is $7.90
Assuming a close in four months (announcement was 3 weeks back), buying at $7.37 would be 21.6% return annualized. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10554
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, September 21, 2009 - 09:40 am: |
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DELL buying PER for $30 cash.
No decent options available yet.... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5891
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - 05:22 pm: |
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$3.29 |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10280
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - 04:29 pm: |
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What S price will it take to get VM down to $4.50? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5890
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - 03:54 pm: |
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Well the way the VM S deal is structured the VM shares are only worth $5.50 if S stays above $4. S announced less than expected earnings and is now trading at .... wait for it.... down 11% to $4. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5887
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 28, 2009 - 03:11 pm: |
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I actually sold a few of each of them as well. So much cash sitting around I feel I need to do something to earn a bit of return. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10273
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 28, 2009 - 02:13 pm: |
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Yes, the problem with the VM play, of which I was later reminded, is that the puts won't expire, or go dormant, but will essentially convert to S puts. I'll cover in a while, when I can get a profit.
I sold February VARI puts, but those will be as good as dead when the deal closes, likely in December... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5886
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 28, 2009 - 01:11 pm: |
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I see now the following that was not in the first couple news items I looked at.
Virgin Mobile's public shareholders will receive Sprint shares equivalent to $5.50 per Virgin Mobile share, subject to a collar of 1.0630 to 1.3668 Sprint shares per Virgin Mobile share. The price is a 31 percent premium over Virgin Mobile's closing price of $4.21 on Monday. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5885
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 28, 2009 - 12:38 pm: |
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The VM S deal is in S shares as near as I can tell. Not sure that is a play I would make.
What is the expiration on the VARI play? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10271
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 28, 2009 - 10:57 am: |
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VM being bought by S for $5.50
I sold $5 puts for $0.50
VARI being bought by A for $52
I sold $50 puts for $1.35
SPSS being bought by IBM for $50
I'm waiting for $50 calls/puts to come out (tomorrow?) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9673
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, April 06, 2009 - 11:10 am: |
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JAVA/IBM talks fall apart. I'm out, with a nasty loss... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9630
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, March 26, 2009 - 09:22 am: |
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DNA saga should close tonight. I just sold my stock for $94.98, and will close my options today...  |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9617
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, March 23, 2009 - 09:37 am: |
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JAVA - I think I may have misunderstood the putative buyout terms. If the deal is $6.5b, then that's $8.73/share. If the deal is $6.5b plus cash then, depending on the definition of "cash", it raises the price to $10.40 to $12.30.
I decided that the best course would be to close out the $8 short calls, which I did, at breakeven... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9604
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 20, 2009 - 01:18 pm: |
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JAVA - I am changing my (short) call/put ratio from 1/1 to 2/1. That moves my profitability range from $5.30-$10.70 to $3.90-$10.05.... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9595
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, March 19, 2009 - 03:55 pm: |
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JAVA - IBM rumored to pay around $8.70 in buyout.
I sold an October $8 strangle for $2.70, so profitable from $5.30 to $10.70 |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9551
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 10, 2009 - 10:57 am: |
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DOW to buy ROH at the full price ($78 + almost $1 late penalty)., but two largest ROH shareholders take DOW stock instead of cash.
I got whacked on my $75 short calls, but more than made up for that on other positions.
I have sold $75 puts and bought $75 calls in anticipation that all will go well. I even bought stock at $77.40, so if something goes wrong, I'm in deep doodoo... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9538
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 06, 2009 - 12:43 pm: |
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ROH and DOW are in CEO-level talks ahead of Monday's trial. The reports make it sound like DOW has little hope of winning the trial, and is trying to come up with a convoluted way of pulling off the deal.
One idea is that big ROH shareholders will plow their loot back into DOW for freshly-issued preferred stock.
Anyway, I'm adding to my March short puts position, going up to $40's now. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9537
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 06, 2009 - 12:13 pm: |
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DNA - Roche just raised bid to $93, so it looks like my $85 and $80 short puts positions will be OK... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9365
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 27, 2009 - 09:54 am: |
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DOW's CEO says they would still like to buy ROH but that the purchase would create "an economic disaster for the combination".
Aside from the fact that he's contradicting himself, it looks like this will be DOW's defense: that the purchase would break BOTH companies because of the added debt.
This defense has worked before... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9361
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 03:28 pm: |
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Yeah, I think we had a selloff by some of those hoping to see $78 this week, followed by those who think DOW will have to fork over $60+ buying back in... |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 792
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 02:52 pm: |
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Those puts you sold for $1.20 are already down to 40 cents. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9360
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 01:52 pm: |
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ROH has sued for specific performance. No surprise there. Seems to me this thing will either be settled in the $60-$70 range (maybe for part DOW stock?) or it will go to court, in which case the stock price shouldn't go below $45 for a couple of months or more.
I've added a bunch of March $35 puts (at $1.20) to my short position... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9359
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 11:27 am: |
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Bought back my WYE Jan 2010 $55 calls for .25 - sold for .90 on Friday. Now, I just have the $40 short puts... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9355
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 09:58 am: |
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DOW will not close deal by January 27 deadline.
Should not have been a surprise, but ROH stock is way down. The Rohm family may be getting some idea of how much money they stand to lose if they don't give DOW better terms... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9354
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 09:43 am: |
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I feel some kind of mystical obligation to play these takeovers, so I sold WYE January 2010 $40 puts for $2.00
Assuming the deal goes through, PFE would have to drop below $5 for me to lose money... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9352
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 08:43 am: |
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Probably not, because the price is about 40% in PFE stock, which makes it too uncertain for my taste... maybe if the $60's had a decent premium. Also, they don't expect closing before end of Q3, which is too long... |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 791
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 08:31 am: |
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Okay, but aren't there still some good options plays on this? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9351
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, January 26, 2009 - 08:29 am: |
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Darn... I was planning to triple my WYE $55 short calls position today, but now news is out that the deal is going through at $50.19.... $68 billion
(Message edited by public_heel on January 26, 2009) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9343
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, January 23, 2009 - 02:36 pm: |
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PFE takeover of WYE reported to be stock/cash combo. WYE is up to $42, but I'm betting the eventual range will be $30-$55, which is where I'm trying to set up a strangle... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 9335
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, January 23, 2009 - 09:09 am: |
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ROH/DOW looking good
I realize that DOW doesn't have to buy within two days, and likely won't, but if they have agreed to divest parts of their company to meet antitrust concerns (as the agreement with ROH requires them to do), then it seems like they are certainly thinking they will have to go ahead, sooner or later. Also, selling off pieces gives them more cash to buy ROH... |
