| Author | Message | ||
     Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 12124 Registered: 12-2003 |
Yes, you probably should keep it small. As soon as you trust these screens, they betray you... | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2755 Registered: 07-2005 |
Heel, I have made some money with it, but I haven't jumped in with both feet. I'm afraid when I do that the screen will turn south. I want to test it more first. It may have just been luck so far. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 12121 Registered: 12-2003 |
Good grief, T/S, you are doing fantastic. I hope you are enriching yourself and your clients, too... | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2752 Registered: 07-2005 |
S&P period return 16.70% Screen period return 32.17% | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2653 Registered: 07-2005 |
I just saw that there is a button that says "Download to Spreadsheet"....Duh nevermind. | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2652 Registered: 07-2005 |
Heel, I thought maybe you could help me with this. I want to put the monthly closing values of a few ETFs into an EXCEL spreadsheet. Do you know how I can get them in without typing each one individually? Cutting and pasting won't work because it highlights the entire section see below. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=IYR&a=02&b=1&c=2009&d=02&e=1&f=2010&g=m | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 11287 Registered: 12-2003 |
Hey, I said I expect those calls to expire worthless.... | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2637 Registered: 07-2005 |
Heel, I'm glad I'm so valuable to you as a contrary indicator. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 11268 Registered: 12-2003 |
T/S - Inspired by your "buy China" idea, I went out and bought some FXP Jan 2012 $13 calls. I expect them to expire worthless, but they look like pretty good insurance against things falling apart over there... | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2633 Registered: 07-2005 |
Actually, I'm already doing that. Everything I buy has a label that says "China" | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 11254 Registered: 12-2003 |
Pretty darn good, and you've made so much already that you can buy China? | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2632 Registered: 07-2005 |
S&P period return 17.03 Screen period Return 27.29 My screen says sell HON and UNP and buy China. I think i'll just go with 100% FXI | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2568 Registered: 07-2005 |
UNP just paid a dividend. I'm not sure how to calculate that in my percent return. I guess I'll just ignore it. | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2567 Registered: 07-2005 |
S&P period return 11.03% screen period return 18.79% Stay with HON and UNP both 50%. | ||
| Sivleyd Moderator Username: Sivleyd Post Number: 979 Registered: 10-2003 |
My guess is you are very bad with your "indoor plus" method of arriving at square footage. There is a lot of dead space in the average home - space that doesn't come from adding up room sizes. As for the 4,100 sf, I don't know. It's really hard to tell with pictures. As far as value goes, fifteen years ago you could contract homebuilding for $50 per square foot. Now that we have a housing glut, should we be much past that figure? The 4,100 house is used, which should make it sell for much less than new. It is also missing the most expensive room to build - the kitchen. | ||
| Miloandbono Registered Member Username: Miloandbono Post Number: 72 Registered: 08-2009 |
the other house was listed at about 2800 sf I think. It didn't say if that included a basement. My guess is that 4100 is close with the unfinished basement included. That conclusion is partially based on how high the taxes are. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 10416 Registered: 12-2003 |
PH, if you would just move to Indiana, you would have so much leftover money you'd feel rich! I like to peruse Zillow just to daydream. I can't help but conclude that there's something terribly wrong with Indiana, just based on house prices, but I have no idea what it might be. I've driven across the state many times - even bicycled across once - and it didn't seem all that much worse than Illinois or Ohio. As for the square footage, I knew that it's from the outside, so I measure on the inside and add a foot for every outside wall. I still think the numbers are exaggerated, but maybe I've just been unfortunate in the ones I've encountered. Do you really think that house pictured is 4100? | ||
| Sivleyd Moderator Username: Sivleyd Post Number: 978 Registered: 10-2003 |
PH, if you would just move to Indiana, you would have so much leftover money you'd feel rich! The square footage measurements are publicly available at the courthouse since those figures are used in property tax assessments. They tend to understate, not overstate. For example, they will sometimes miss a finished basement or upstairs dormer. FYI, you measure square footage from the outside. And unless you need exact calculations it is fairly easy to approximate. | ||
| Miloandbono Registered Member Username: Miloandbono Post Number: 71 Registered: 08-2009 |
there is a house down the street of this place for sale @ $214k. Kitchen included! | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 10415 Registered: 12-2003 |
So you have to rebuild the kitchen? Maybe $30k? Many people would want to do that anyway. Still seems like a steal. BTW, I'll bet that place isn't even close to 4100 sqft. I think realtors routinely lie about footage, realizing that most people are so seriously innumerate that they won't question it. Once, when I was being shown a house, I whipped out a tape measure and asked the realtor to help me out. I got the clear impression that he thought I was doing something socially unacceptable... | ||
| Sivleyd Moderator Username: Sivleyd Post Number: 977 Registered: 10-2003 |
PH/Milo, did you notice what happened to the kitchen at this place? That might explain the low price. (Message edited by sivleyd on August 26, 2009) | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 10414 Registered: 12-2003 |
How do these foreclosures work? For example http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5517-Dill-Ct-Indianapolis-IN-46237/59812177_zp id/ There's no way this house could go for $180k. Is this like the "lowest bid" price on EBay, and could one expect bidders the push the price up to $250k+? | ||
| Miloandbono Registered Member Username: Miloandbono Post Number: 70 Registered: 08-2009 |
I believe most of the real deals here in Indianapolis are above $600k. That market is tough. The $100k-$200k price points have suffered the least. I believe the homes I bought in 1990-2000 are still selling above the price I paid. The small towns 30-60 miles outside Indianapolis are a little hit and miss. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 10410 Registered: 12-2003 |
I believe that I can get this house for around $80K. 4 BR, 2 BA, 2400 SF. 2400 sf for $80k? Incredible. I'd come and bid $81k, but I'm afraid Marietta's a little too hot for me. What could you rent that house out for? Seems like you could easily be cashflow positive... | ||
| Killernut Registered Member Username: Killernut Post Number: 5908 Registered: 10-2003 |
Personally, I am not finding much to like in the stock market. A select few plays but most of them are so far from their bottoms they aren't that great of play anymore. I am looking some distressed real estate locally. There is a house that will be sold at sheriff's sale later this week that is in a very nice upscale neighborhood that I am looking at. It was for sale back in '97 when I bought my current house but was out of my price range. It ended up selling for about twice (about $150K) what I paid for my current house. Similar houses in that neighborhood are currently selling for about $180-$220K which is still about twice what my current house is worth. I believe that I can get this house for around $80K. 4 BR, 2 BA, 2400 SF. Seems silly to me that I could upgrade houses for a price like this. I also believe that I could sell mine eventually or just rent it out. We'll see. | ||
| Sivleyd Moderator Username: Sivleyd Post Number: 976 Registered: 10-2003 |
Super, thanks. I think this is a helpful level of discussion we should have on 11wall. What valid alternative investments are out there? I bought a pile of low investment grade bonds back in March when even bondholders were shaking in their boots. I wish I had bought more. I will keep all the bonds, where I have sold many of the stocks I bought then. The bond opportunity is long gone. Commodities seem more a reflection of general economic demand. Foreign markets crashed along with ours - may be in even worse shape that US. There are good buys in RE right now, however recovery may be a long time coming. And carrying costs on RE can consume the investment. I personally like the PH Black Box idea, where the strategy is market neutral. I am actively looking at alternatives to 1.5% money market accounts. I will probably never give up on individual stock picking and ETFs, but I do expect we are in for a very difficult decade ahead. | ||
| Super Moderator Username: Super Post Number: 1319 Registered: 10-2003 |
siv [better idea] One thing that is probably not a "better idea" is debt instruments of mainland Chinese companies. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125114222992354647.html | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 10406 Registered: 12-2003 |
I'm sure that there are countless good stockpickers out there, but they're working only for themselves. Once you get a rep, and start working for other people, you have to manage too much money to be nimble. If you stock to 11Wall, our best stockpicker is K/N... | ||
| Miloandbono Registered Member Username: Miloandbono Post Number: 65 Registered: 08-2009 |
hehe... I hear you. thanks guys. The idea is that we will have a decent period where the market will be moving down over the next couple of year. I guess I'm assuming someone out there has an okay track record. | ||
| Sivleyd Moderator Username: Sivleyd Post Number: 975 Registered: 10-2003 |
Super, I sure like ETFs for the reason you mentioned, along with many others. However 2008 and Q1 2009 took even the "diversified" ETFs down to unbearable levels. Every asset class in every location of the world crashed to such low levels it should make those investment classes unsuitable for the bulk of retirement accounts. It does leave a guy looking for an alternative. For now, let's humor ourselves with the thought of someone out there who has a better idea. If I hear of any, I will QUIETLY pass it along to my 11wall buddies! :-) | ||
| Super Moderator Username: Super Post Number: 1318 Registered: 10-2003 |
Milo - [good stock picking service] Seems like I remember that the stock picking wizards managing mutual funds routinely under-perform the S&P 500, which is the argument for putting your money in an index fund. What makes you think there is such a thing as a competent wizard? | ||
| Miloandbono Registered Member Username: Miloandbono Post Number: 64 Registered: 08-2009 |
anyone know of a good stock picking service or trading advisor. I need to use my capital more efficiently and most of the time I don't hold positions over night in my trading account. Trying to branch out and try new things. | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2564 Registered: 07-2005 |
Milo, The screen only picks the sector...I pick the stocks using fundamental analysis. I have more confidence in the screen than I do my own stock picking ability. It would easier to just to buy the ETF of the sector that the screen recommends, but I enjoy picking the stocks. | ||
| Miloandbono Registered Member Username: Miloandbono Post Number: 57 Registered: 08-2009 |
tree - does your screen only focus on a few stocks or are you screening hundreds and it only spit out 2? Or does it choose the sector first then the stock? | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2563 Registered: 07-2005 |
The witch doctor says it is time to leave financials and go into industrials. S&P period return 9.1% WFC,JPM period return 17.0% Sell WFC and JPM and invest 50% UNP and 50% HON | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2561 Registered: 07-2005 |
Screen is stubbornly sticking with financials, so I will stay with JPM and WFC. S&P500 Period return 9.07% JPM, WFC period return 18.78% | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2552 Registered: 07-2005 |
JPM, WFC period return 4.48% S&P 500 period return 9.48% | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2548 Registered: 07-2005 |
The screen says to stay in WFC and JPM for the moment. If the cash was divided equally between them the period return so far is 6.80% and the S&P 500 return for the period is 1.51%. (Message edited by Tree-sloth on July 15, 2009) | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2514 Registered: 07-2005 |
There seems to some open space here. I'm trying a new screen and I'm going to post what it spits out here. JPM, WFC both long until the screen tells me otherwise. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 9273 Registered: 12-2003 |
The green line is how the screen performed (reconstituted each Friday). The x-axis is weeks before present. SO you can see that the screen did spectacularly well in the bull market, and spectacularly badly in the bear market. | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 2382 Registered: 07-2005 |
what is the green strategy line, and what does the 0 to 105 on the X axis represent? | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 9261 Registered: 12-2003 |
If we're in a bear market, or a bull market, this is one heck of a screen...  Cap > $200m Current-year PE < 7 Projected PE > 15 Current price % of 52-week hi/low range < 10 | ||
| Killernut Registered Member Username: Killernut Post Number: 5698 Registered: 10-2003 |
SHIP is one that needs some serious DD after they release a 10K. I believe they have $10 per share cash on the books restricted in case of liquidation. Whoever heard of terms like that. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 9148 Registered: 12-2003 |
9% over that period is 66% annualized Of course, now there's a new list... ZAP DISCB QLTI MRCY SWIR TRID KONG ACTS ADPI AATI BPOP PVD HEK MCY PLFE XL TWPG TRAD SHIP (Message edited by public_heel on December 17, 2008) | ||
| Killernut Registered Member Username: Killernut Post Number: 5697 Registered: 10-2003 |
............oct 28.....dec 17...% ACTS........1.81.......1.67....-8 ADPT........3.00.......3.52....+17 KONG........3.00.......3.56....+19 SHIP........4.84.......6.20....+28 TRID........1.65.......1.95....+18 HAUP........1.01.......1.10....+9 EXAR........5.99.......7.17....+20 RACK........6.47.......4.00....-38 TLAB........4.38.......4.18....-5 SCMR........3.14.......2.89....-8 .................avg...........+5 sp500.....940.51.....904.42....-4 so far the near cash values have outperformed slightly. of course my favorite RACK is the worst performer of the bunch. i think it would be wise to revisit late next spring. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 8838 Registered: 12-2003 |
Absolutally.... | ||
| Killernut Registered Member Username: Killernut Post Number: 5658 Registered: 10-2003 |
I meant to add the other day that the reason I still think we are too early on these plays is that the recession is really just starting to hit many companies. In the past screen it was well into the downturn and most of the companies that made the screen were able to maintain cash flow positive thru it. We have no idea if thes ones on the below list will be able to do so. | ||
| Killernut Registered Member Username: Killernut Post Number: 5653 Registered: 10-2003 |
PH, more data later but I would narrow the near or under cash screen list down to ACTS ADPT KONG SHIP TRID HAUP EXAR RACK TLAB SCMR I eliminated biotech (only 1). Also eliminated financial services companies right off the bat as I don't get their balance sheets. Many of these have earnings release any day, so I would wait til mid November before making any decisions. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 8779 Registered: 12-2003 |
K/N - Add LFG, HALL and PVD KONG and SCMR fell off | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 8749 Registered: 12-2003 |
BTW, I can backtest this screen for the last two years. It has consistently underperformed the S&P 500... | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 8748 Registered: 12-2003 |
K/N - Add BPOP, TLAB, SCMR and FBCM MEDQ and OXPS have fallen off the list, although probably not very far... | ||
| Killernut Registered Member Username: Killernut Post Number: 5645 Registered: 10-2003 |
I agree, same as I said last time we discussed it, still too early. The deals might get even better and the companies that stay at or near cash flow positive even in the recession probably will do well coming out. Although I still want to go thru the list to narrow it down and start following these names. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 8736 Registered: 12-2003 |
Well, if you want to tweak any of those parameters, let me know. I have to say, though, that I think we are still a little early in the recession for this. I kinda remember that, last time, we were already out of the recession, although official figures had not come in yet... | ||
| Killernut Registered Member Username: Killernut Post Number: 5643 Registered: 10-2003 |
I don't recall my entire list from last time but for the most part they were beaten up tech. I think most were on the Naz as well. The ones that I remember were OPMR (which is currently selling below cash I believe), VCLK, ALVR, ICTS, CMVT. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 8735 Registered: 12-2003 |
K/N - Something I noticed about that list is that they are almost all NAZ stocks. Your list from the last bear market was, IIRC, nearly all NYSE. This makes me uneasy... | ||
| Bodega_bill Registered Member Username: Bodega_bill Post Number: 297 Registered: 10-2003 |
Interesting article on artificial intelligence and trading. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/24/business/24trading.html?ref=business | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 1134 Registered: 07-2005 |
Heel, Thanks, I'll look through them. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 3286 Registered: 12-2003 |
TS - I just did a few,. if you are interested in particular other sectors, let me know... Oil/Gas Drilling: ARD, HP, OII, TTI Cement: none Ind oil/Gas: PVA, NXY, AEZ, EEQ Gold: BVN, KGC, GOLD Oil/Gas Eqp: CAm, CRB, DRQ, BJS, FTI, GRP, LUFK, NOV, NTG, OIS, PDGS, SII, SLB, SPN, UCO, WHQ Industrial Eqp: none Refining/mktg: ALJ, HOC, IMO, IOC, MRO Residential Construction: MDC Computer Wholesale: none Healthcare Info Svcs: CERN, HLTH Drug Delivery: BVF Industrial Metals: AII, BW, CNX, FDG, JRCC, MEE, TIE, PCU Farm Machinery: BUCY, JLG, TEX Healthcare Plans: CI, SIE, WCG Heavy Construction: DY, GLBL, GVA | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 1129 Registered: 07-2005 |
Heel, I guess I wasn't specific enough about the data for you to do the screen. I'll play around with it. Thanks | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 1126 Registered: 07-2005 |
P/H, See the chart I posted for the worst performing sectors. "Good" stocks would be the normal perameters..Low P/E, earnings growth, etc. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 3282 Registered: 12-2003 |
T/S - I can do that. Tell me how you'd define "best stocks" and "worst performing sector". I can only go back ten months, though... | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 1125 Registered: 07-2005 |
I've been thinking that one possible way to play the market is to screen for good stocks in the worst performing sectors, and then wait for that sector to return to favor. I'm sure it has been tested, but I may play with it a bit. This chart goes back one year. http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?base=industry (Message edited by tree-sloth on September 15, 2006) | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 588 Registered: 07-2005 |
P/H..Thanks | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 1733 Registered: 12-2003 |
T/S - If you're planning to use MyTrack, ask if they still have the Market Scan feature. It would do what you want, and a whole lot more real-time scans as well... | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 586 Registered: 07-2005 |
Does anybody have a site where I can get the day's big movers during trading hours? TIA | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 504 Registered: 07-2005 |
This looks interesting for day traders.... http://www.tradethenews.com/ | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 1471 Registered: 12-2003 |
T/S - They say they only include L/R stocks that he's especially enthusiastic about. Looking at the list: http://www.booyahboyaudit.com/index.php?name=Stocks&op=list4 the great majority are stocks that he introduced, not L/R stocks. | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 489 Registered: 07-2005 |
P/H, "Given that an instant 3% jump is probably the average of a Cramer recommendation, he would seem to be doing no better than the indexes" Giving him the benefit of the doubt, that would be true if someone bought all of his recommendations, and held brainlessly until he said to sell. The one thing that bothers me about Cramer is that he seems to have a strong opinion during the lightning round even when he doesn't seem to know a company very well. I think his percentage would be significantly higher with companies he has taken the time to research, and feature outside the lightning round. | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 488 Registered: 07-2005 |
Cmac, I saw it. He was a tyrant when he was running his hedge fund. He used to make staff walk around all day with a post it note on their forehead if they made a bad stock call. He took 20% of profits...not a bad gig. | ||
| Jfh Moderator Username: Jfh Post Number: 246 Registered: 10-2003 |
cmac: "2000 stocks at at time in his head or some such." you don't know p/h's mental complexity | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 1469 Registered: 12-2003 |
He's a real phenomenon. You should watch his show sometime. They air it three times a day. It's quite interesting, and somewhat educational, perhaps very educational for newbies. I suspect that, as a rule, his audience will lose money. Of course, no one will ever know that, because people who've lost don't want to advertise it by calling in... | ||
| Cmac Registered Member Username: Cmac Post Number: 196 Registered: 03-2004 |
Flipped on one of the news magazines (i think it was 60 minutes) and they were doing a spot on Cramer. Anybody else see that? 2000 stocks at at time in his head or some such. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 1467 Registered: 12-2003 |
That's good. I just started to do the same thing a week ago, even breaking it down pretty much the same way. Given that an instant 3% jump is probably the average of a Cramer recommendation, he would seem to be doing no better than the indexes, assuming you didn't somehow know enough to buy the stocks before he recommended them... | ||
| Treesloth Registered Member Username: Treesloth Post Number: 486 Registered: 07-2005 |
A site that tracks Cramer's performance http://www.booyahboyaudit.com/index.php | ||
| Super Moderator Username: Super Post Number: 1215 Registered: 10-2003 |
BTW, I use the Reuters (formerly Multex, formarly Marketguide) screener at http://www.investor.reuters.com/nscreen/builder.asp | ||
| Super Moderator Username: Super Post Number: 1214 Registered: 10-2003 |
PH - why certainly, my ursine friend: ({Vol3MAvg}/30)>1 = 3 month avg volume > 1 million shares/day {EPSPExclXorTTM}<0.or.{peexclxorttm}>75 = TTM earnings negative or PE over 75 {Pr2BookQ}>20 = Price/Book >20 for most recent quarter {Price}>30 = price over $30 | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 4741 Registered: 12-2003 |
Super - would you mind putting those first three criteria into English? It might be worth relaxing them a little to see what comes up... | ||
| Super Moderator Username: Super Post Number: 1213 Registered: 10-2003 |
The only "sure winner" screen I ever found was the "bloated pigs" screen I put together based on tc's input to identify shorting candidates. It worked beautifully, they sold off massively and are still running at only ~30% of original value. The original screen included a $30 minimum share price (don't ask me why) but excluding that criterion the following currently qualify: ELN NEOM ISON FRCP NXTP FMDY TASR TZOO Only TZOO meets the $30 minimum price criterion, though. I have not looked at these stocks and would NOT short them without careful study!!! The original criteria were/are: ({Vol3MAvg}/30)>1 {EPSPExclXorTTM}<0.or.{peexclxorttm}>75 {Pr2BookQ}>20 {Price}>30 The original(!) "bloated pigs" back in y2K or thereabouts no longer qualify for the appelation but for reference they were: NTAP ONIS JNPR PMCS BEAS SEBL BRCD CHKP CIEN HAND EMC RMBS IMNX AFFX PAYX For all I know these original stocks may be even be reasonably valued nowadays. They were way overvalued back then. | ||
| Tree_sloth Registered Member Username: Tree_sloth Post Number: 1180 Registered: 10-2003 |
P/h, Interesting that the same amount that lost 0-10%,lost 30-50%. It seems like you sample is large enough to be significant. I would have expected a bell shaped curve. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 4708 Registered: 12-2003 |
T/S - I was looking at 2004, so I only have 6-month performance for 515 of the 941 candidates. For all 515, the average 6-month performance is -3.4% 37 lost over 50% 73 lost 30-50% 56 lost 20-30% 60 lost 10-20% 72 lost 0-10% 74 gained 0-10% 54 gained 10-20% 33 gained 20-30% 30 gained 30-50% 27 gained 50%+ If you assume that the stock you're looking at is unlikely to be an extreme gainer or loser, then you could throw out the best 20 and worst 20, which would result in an average loss of 6%. | ||
| Tree_sloth Registered Member Username: Tree_sloth Post Number: 1175 Registered: 10-2003 |
P/H, "Then, I checked their prices at 1, 5, 10, 20 and 40 days after they'd dropped 10%. " Have you done any longer term time points at specific levels. For example, of all the stocks that lost 10%, how many went on to lose an additional 10% over the next six months, an additional 20% ect. My goal is to eliminate the big losers. | ||
| Tree_sloth Registered Member Username: Tree_sloth Post Number: 1172 Registered: 10-2003 |
P/H "The answer is that a 10% drop, by itself, doesn't have much predictive value." If you sell at 10%, your maximum loss in that trade is 10%. That's certainly predictable. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 4700 Registered: 12-2003 |
I'd love to develop one someday. Have you incorporated the examples you just presented into your trading? No, because I didn't see anything much to incorporate. Basically, I was just answering your question as to whether it would be a good rule to sell on 10% drops. The answer is that a 10% drop, by itself, doesn't have much predictive value. As for my software, I use FOCUS, which is a combination of a database manager and a programming language. It's about 30 years old, and I learned it about 24 years ago and made a good living programming in it for almost 20 years. It was part of a group of "languages" developed in the 70's that were called "fourth generation". ORACLE is probably the only one of these you have heard of. For a long time, FOCUS was greatly superior to ORACLE (and still is, in some ways), but ORACLE clearly has been the successful one commercially. | ||
| Tree_sloth Registered Member Username: Tree_sloth Post Number: 1171 Registered: 10-2003 |
P/H, for your data base, do you use Excel, Access, or something else? Just wondering.. | ||
| Tree_sloth Registered Member Username: Tree_sloth Post Number: 1170 Registered: 10-2003 |
P/H, Very interesting. It must be great to have a data base to test all your hypotheses. I'd love to develop one someday. Have you incorporated the examples you just presented into your trading? | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 4699 Registered: 12-2003 |
T/S - Finally, I checked to see if the market direction during the times our stocks were losing 10% made any difference. It made some. If the QQQ's went up while our stocks were losing, then those stocks lost 4%, on average, over the next 40 days. Id' say though, that part of that 4% loss was just because we've had an erratic market this year and, if the market were going up during the 10%-losing period, it was likely going down oer th next 40 days. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 4698 Registered: 12-2003 |
T/S - Following up, I refined the search to those who, in 2004, hit 30% over their 2003 highs. Then, I checked their prices at 1, 5, 10, 20 and 40 days after they'd dropped 10%. On average, they gained a few percent at all intervals including, oddly enough, one day. Another refinement to add would be to look only at stocks whose 10% drops were counter to, or at least a lot worse than, what the overall market did. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 4696 Registered: 12-2003 |
AGY had a high of $26.65 in 2003. It hit $38.52 on 2004/04/27. It dropped 10% by 2004/05/10 | ||
| Tree_sloth Registered Member Username: Tree_sloth Post Number: 1169 Registered: 10-2003 |
P/H, "I wrote a little program to go thru my prices database for symbols from AAAAA to DZZZZ. For those whose highest price in 2003 was above $5 (Step 1), I determined the first time in 2004 that they had a higher price, then the first time after that that they were down 10% (Step 2). " I'm not clear on what you did. Can you give an example? Thanks | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 4693 Registered: 12-2003 |
T/S - You use "conditional" orders, and I think TrackTrade is not the only broker that offers these. Let's say you have 100 shares of Stock X at $50, and you want to put in an order to sell if it hits $40. You enter a two-part conditional order: Part 1 - Buy 1 share at $40.25 Part 2 - Sell 101 shares (either market or your selected limit) The specialist sees Part 1, but Part 2 is not even submitted until Part 1 fills. | ||
| Public_heel Moderator Username: Public_heel Post Number: 4692 Registered: 12-2003 |
Should anyone ever be in a stock that has fallen more than 10 percent from it's peak, You might want to refine that question a bit. I wrote a little program to go thru my prices database for symbols from AAAAA to DZZZZ. For those whose highest price in 2003 was above $5 (Step 1), I determined the first time in 2004 that they had a higher price, then the first time after that that they were down 10% (Step 2). Of 1713 stocks selected in Step 1, 1180 also qualified in Step 2. | ||
| Tree_sloth Registered Member Username: Tree_sloth Post Number: 1166 Registered: 10-2003 |
P/H, did you mention with My track you can enter limit sell orders without them being seen by market makers? | ||
| Tree_sloth Registered Member Username: Tree_sloth Post Number: 1165 Registered: 10-2003 |
Why are we still in FRO? Should anyone ever be in a stock that has fallen more than 10 percent from it's peak, or drops more than 10% below your purchase price? From now on I'm going to put in limit sell orders at 10% to guard against these types of things. | ||
| Jfh Moderator Username: Jfh Post Number: 1115 Registered: 10-2003 |
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