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Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1293
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:59 am: | 
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Well, this IS the thread for technical analysis. On a more fundamental view, I note that a 15% drop from here would get us to Shiller's average PE for the S&P500.
http://www.multpl.com/ |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12335
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:34 am: |
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It all very well to look at trends and trading ranges, etc, but I think it's a good idea to look at GDP numbers, which are awful, and the political situation, which is worse.
We would seem to be sliding back into recession, w/o the political cohesion to do anything about it... |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1292
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:08 am: |
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The market has been moving in trends for several months. Obviously, this is a downtrend. This one might finish today or crash on down to the July bottom at 1016 or even further. I find it fascinating how well the chart has stayed within the trend. On a day-to-day basis, it seems to jump all around the place. However, Even the extreme moves have been within the established trend. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1111
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Saturday, August 28, 2010 - 07:47 am: |
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thanks popeye! I appreciate you sharing with us. |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1306
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, August 27, 2010 - 06:03 pm: |
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I have been watching it since it made the first right shoulder. It would have been better if it did not make this second one. I posted on another board that the DJIA looked like the 1950 chart that was the begining of leg 2 on the bull market. The high was on June 12 and a low on July 13, similar to this year.( market dropped from 229 to 196.) From that low the market went up and made a double to 228 on Nov 28 and Dec 20.
If we follow this pattern, we could go up until Feb and maybe as late as April 2011. With the manipulation going on in the market place, no one really knows what is going to happen, so everyone is guessing. It would be better if we move down at least to the 9000 +/- 100 and then hold down the road in the 7800-8000 area, above the previous low. When I am asked how low I think we will go, I always say that we will not break 4000 on the Dow. My next major marker is Oct 25th.
Just protect your capital. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1110
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, August 27, 2010 - 04:05 pm: |
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POPEYE - what do you think about this double bottom in the S&P. Sure looks like we put the floor in today for a little while. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1093
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 24, 2010 - 09:37 am: |
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Box?? Is that you? Certainly Heel isn't becoming a chartists??? Box, I think you might be right. I welcome a move to 900. It could give us an investable rally. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12289
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 24, 2010 - 09:24 am: |
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1050 looks like the neckline in an SPX head-and-shoulders. A sharp break below could start a fall to 900... |
Super
Moderator
Username: Super
Post Number: 1654
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, August 13, 2010 - 09:15 pm: |
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I got this stuff from the Wall Street Journal:
==============================================
'Hindenburg Omen' Flashes
Technical Gauge and Its Creator Sense Stock Gloom; 'Good Conspiracy Theories'?
By STEVEN RUSSOLILLO And TOMI KILGORE
Forget about Friday the 13th. Many on Wall Street took to whispering about an even scarier phenomenon—the "Hindenburg Omen."
The Omen, named after the famous German airship in 1937 that crashed in Lakehurst, N.J., is a technical indicator that foreshadows not just a bear market but a stock-market crash. Its creator, a blind mathematician named Jim Miekka, said his indicator is now predicting a market meltdown in September.
Wall Street has been abuzz about whether the Hindenburg Omen will come to bear, with some traders cautioning clients about the indicator and blogs pondering all the doom and gloom. But Andrew Brenner, managing director at Guggenheim Securities, told his clients: "Personally, it sounds like [people] are starting their weekend drinking early."
Technical indicators, with names like "The Death Cross" and "The Bearish Abandoned Baby" have been attracting mainstream attention in recent months. Amid an increasingly volatile market, investors have been searching for any clues about stocks' direction, especially this past week where major indexes fell more than 3%.
"We always love good conspiracy theories," said Joseph Battipaglia, chief market strategist of the private-client group at Stifel Nicolaus. But he noted that market watchers sometimes make too much of what could be mere coincidences. "I for one dismiss all these things because they usually erupt most numerously during bear markets."
Mr. Miekka came up with the Omen in 1995 as a way to predict big market downturns, developing a formula that parses data like 52-week stock levels and the moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange. He said the Hindenburg Omen's name was coined by a fellow market technician, Kennedy Gammage, when they found out the name "Titanic" already had been taken.
The confluence of data used by the Omen was officially tripped this week. There were 92 companies that hit new 52-week highs on Thursday, or 2.9% of all companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange. There were also 81 new lows, or 2.6% of the total. Each number must exceed 2.5% for the Omen to occur, according to Mr. Miekka.
Other criteria include a rising 10-week moving average for NYSE and a negative McClellan Oscillator, a technical indicator that measures market fluctuations. Mr. Miekka said the appearance of one signal is usually an indication of a market top, but the Omen becomes more accurate when there are two or more close together.
The Omen was behind every market crash since 1987, but also has occurred many other times without an ensuing significant downturn. Market analysts said only about 25% of Omen appearances have led to stock-market declines that can be considered crashes.
"The Hindenburg Omen does show some deteriorating internals, which signals some major concerns," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "But it isn't a reason to move to 100% in cash. We're taking a wait-and-see approach, but considering its recent history, we're considering it more than other indicators."
Mr. Miekka, who writes a Wall Street newsletter called "Sudbury Bull & Bear Report" out of his homes in Maine and Florida, wasn't even aware that his own Hindenburg Omen indicator was activated. The 50-year-old former physics teacher, who is an avid target shooter, said he was "taken by surprise" after he plugged the data into his model.
He didn't say whether it is a good time to bail out of the market, but he isn't exactly in a bullish mood when it comes to stocks. "I'll be dancing close to the door," he said. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1057
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, August 09, 2010 - 03:15 pm: |
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I have to think there will be a decent selloff around that 1150 level. Maybe we'll drift until Labor day, then we'll see some selling after that.
 |
Super
Moderator
Username: Super
Post Number: 1631
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 03:21 pm: |
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At this point the NASDAQ is operating above both the 50-day and 200-day SMA lines. If that continues the SMA lines will cross into a bullish configuration sooner or later. Maybe in a month or so? Or maybe not.
September/October, the "freakout season", is approaching. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1032
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, August 02, 2010 - 04:27 pm: |
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GOOG - looks like an inverse head & shoulders. I'd say there is a decent chance you could get $30-$40 run up. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1000
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, July 19, 2010 - 02:20 pm: |
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BTW- a late day run might save both from a TA standpoint. SLV's break is questionable right now. APPL's will look like a red flag no matter the close. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 999
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, July 19, 2010 - 02:17 pm: |
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ph - I suppose there are probably many charts that look like those, but I can't watch them all.... I thought the chart patterns looked similar and might break their uptrend soon. I don't have a bet on either, but I'm considering some sort of bearish play on both now. There are lots of people in love with both, so it could be juicy. I know you are mildly bearish with options on APPL. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12066
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, July 19, 2010 - 11:30 am: |
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Why pick those two? A tech stock and a commodity? |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 998
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, July 19, 2010 - 11:05 am: |
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more on APPL and SLV - both look like they are breaking today. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6260
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 07:50 pm: |
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was it easyquanter that used a 4 yr moving average.
whatever it was, the long term chart multi decade returned to it fairly regularly over the years. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 997
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 06:33 pm: |
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no problem at all. Yeah, I'm not sure how useful the 200 week is in normal times, but it worked there. |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1283
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 03:53 pm: |
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Milo, you are right with your comments and read on the 200-WEEK MA graph. I have just never heard of anyone using that long of a moving average. It is almost 4 years. Ironically, I mentioned that a 200-week average would be almost horizontal - your graph shows it moving only 14 points in 3 years! Yep.
My mistake. Sorry about that. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 996
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 10:58 am: |
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APPL and SLV - Both have held an uptrend but seem to be at a decision point. I think either could breakdown. SLV also looks like an inverse head and shoulders, so if we approach the recent highs anytime soon, this will seem like a great buy point. I wouldn't buy either here. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 995
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 10:47 am: |
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As close and I can tell, my daily charts of the SPY with a 200MA match bigcharts.com and yahoo charts. I didn't see how to do a weekly chart on yahoo but I'm sure you probably can. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 994
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 04:55 pm: |
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thanks siv. I need to do some research on that. Clearly the daily vs weekend has the "200" line landing in different area and the weekly chart covers over 2 years vs the daily chart covering about 2 or 3 months. To me the weekly chart has a bar every week, and the 200 MA is a 200 week average. I'll look closer over the weekend. |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1282
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 04:40 pm: |
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That was a 2.88% drop on the SPY today. It definitely ran out of gas! |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1281
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 04:39 pm: |
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Milo, I think you are reading the chart wrong. The "weekly" label refers to the frequency the graph is updated. They post a new price and extend the graph weekly. You can choose daily or hourly, etc. The "Moving Average 200" refers to days. Good grief, 200 weeks would be 4 years! It would be almost a horizontal line. I did notice their calculation for 200dma is not lining up with Yahoo or StockCharts.com. It shows the 200dma quite a bit higher. By the way, both Yahoo and StockCharts showed perfect timing with when commentators announced the 200dma cross. So they are accurate. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 993
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 04:18 pm: |
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siv - on these candle charts I have the 200 "week" average catching the top (image posted at 9:29am). My daily chart posted at 9:17 this morning shows we breached the 200 day. I usually use the candles for longer term stuff. |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1280
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 10:03 am: |
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You mean the 200-day, but yes, the 200dma is topside resistance. Also look at the 50-day. Yesterday, SPY rebounded to touch the 50dma. It had fully recovered from an oversold condition.
Maybe I'm wrong, but here's what I see:
When the market rallies on no news, it is extremely bullish. When it fails to rally on good news, it is extremely bearish. Yesterday seemed to be that turning point. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 992
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 09:29 am: |
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siv - look at how the 200 week caught the top. Pretty interesting.
 |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1279
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 09:21 am: |
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Popeye, I'll definitely be watching for that July 26th date. Milo, I like your line in the sand. It is a movable target, but it seems significant. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 990
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 09:17 am: |
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Here is my chart. I have our current level as downtrend resistance and the 200 day as the line in the sand. So, I have some small hedges on that cover a portfolio I don't manage. I think the market should move lower here.  |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1286
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 09:06 am: |
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Siv
Everyone and their dog have been predicting a head and shoulders top. They are overlooking the fact that we may make a head and shoulders reversal bottom. If we do, we will go up big. If not, we will get on down to test the 9000 +/- 100 on the 100 point and figure chart. Don't get stuck in a large short position if we turn up around my marker date of July 26 of shortly after. |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1278
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 08:41 am: |
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Okay, we got our bounce. Just look at where we were when I posted the last chart. Anyone here have talent for charting? It seems we are again at a decision point. We've had a nice 2-week rebound. In fact, the market moved up without hardly any good news. Now, with real news coming out, the market feels out of gas. If SPY cannot break through the prior high at 113, I think it is toast. It dare not stall out at 110. My Fibonacci buddies would quote the retracement level from the recent drop. As of now, this is merely a rebound. What's next? My graph would play out pretty well if yesterday marked the high. Short-term yellow columns turn down. A new mid-term blue column resumes downward. Ideas? |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1285
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 12:34 pm: |
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entire article
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1278958658.php |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 986
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 12:21 pm: |
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Silver / Gold - I wonder if I buy $100k with of silver and sell $100k worth of gold where it will be in a year?? A year is probably not enough I suppose. Obviously if they both go down, silver will probably go down a higher %. |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1284
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 10:42 am: |
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Gold-silver ratio
Conclusions:
There are many! Let’s look at the various price levels for gold and the various silver:gold ratios mentioned above one by one and see what conclusions we can draw.
First let’s use the mid-year (June 30th, 2010) price of $1243 for gold and apply the various silver:gold ratios mentioned above and see what they do for the potential % increase in, and price of, silver.
Gold @ $1243 using the current 66.77:1 silver:gold ratio puts silver at $18.61 (June 30/10)
Gold @ $1243 using the above 45.69:1 silver:gold ratio puts silver at $27.20 (i.e. +46.2%)
Gold @ $1243 using the above 13.99:1 silver:gold: ratio puts silver at $88.85 (i.e. +377.4%)
Now let’s apply the projections made above by the various economists, academics, gold analysts and market commentators listed above to the silver:gold ratio and see what that suggests is the parabolic top for silver.
@ $10,000 Gold
Gold @ $10,000 using the silver:gold ratio of 66:1 puts silver at $150
Gold @ $10,000 using the silver:gold ratio of 45:1 puts silver at $222
Gold @ $10,000 using the silver:gold ratio of 14:1 puts silver at $714!!
@ $5,000 Gold
Gold @ $5,000 using the silver:gold ratio of 66.1 puts silver at $75
Gold @ $5,000 using the silver:gold ratio of 45:1 puts silver at $111
Gold @ $5,000 using the silver:gold ratio of 14:1 puts silver at $357
@ $2,500 Gold
Gold @ $2,500 using the silver:gold ratio of 66:1 puts silver at $38
Gold @ $2,500 using the silver:gold ratio of 45:1 puts silver at $55.50
Gold @ $2,500 using the silver:gold ratio of 14:1 puts silver at $178.50
From the above it seems that, any way we look at it, physical silver is currently undervalued compared to gold bullion and is in position to generate substantially greater returns than investing in gold bullion.
Summary |
Super
Moderator
Username: Super
Post Number: 1593
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 06, 2010 - 10:58 am: |
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In Germany they use a psychic octopus to predict soccer games. I wonder if that would work for stock picking and market trends.
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/SeaLife-Aquarium-Oberhausen2C-Germany-World-Cup-Sp ain/photo//100706/483/urn_publicid_ap_org_ff85afc38bbb464dba8d05dde3857ae8//s:/a p/20100706/ap_on_re_eu/eu_germany_octopus_oracle_world_cup#photoViewer=/100706/i ds_photos_ts/r3113518525.jpg |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1283
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 06, 2010 - 10:05 am: |
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Cape
I had to be at the doctor's office at eight this morning so really did not finish my remarks.
Last Wednesday and bought some straight call options on the premise we would rally this week as the Dow was approaching the 50% level from the 2008 and 2009 lows to the April high. Hopefully this would cause some sort of relief rally in the market. If we did not rally by Wednesday afternoon, I would sell my options. I see that the market is up 101 points so I may make a little on the options.
My July marker may fool us and be a high. It could happen. My new marker is October 25th.
Ray |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1282
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 06, 2010 - 07:13 am: |
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Cape
Yes, but anything can happen in this market. The Bradley Sideograph has August 10th for a low.
A contrarian would say all the charts look so bad that the market will turn up. Would like to see a 300-400 point rally if we close below 9500 today or tomorrow and then bottom at 9000 +/- 9100.
This market could go into another free fall to 7800-8000,so take your pick.
Ray |
Cape_rover
Registered Member
Username: Cape_rover
Post Number: 177
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, July 05, 2010 - 08:48 pm: |
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Popeye, Are you still tracking July 26th as a low? |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 946
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 12:08 pm: |
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I read a good article that put the DOW prediction at 5000. I think this is very realistic.
ah, here it is. I'm sure a few of you have seen this.
http://pragcap.com/david-rosenberg-is-dow-5000-really-possible |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1261
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 09:57 am: |
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OK, your failed rally comment described daily trading activity. I was thinking maybe a few days or weeks. Recently, we had a rally to a higher high. It fell back to a lower low. I think that is H&S. It is also a failed rally over a weekly/monthly view. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11972
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 09:46 am: |
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Not to be picky, but my understanding of "failed rally" is what just happened. You don't know you've failed until you can't make it back to the prior high.
Of course, on a much larger scale, the 2009-10 bull market could be seen as a failed rally off the 2008-09 drop. Consider this. That would point to maybe 400 on the SPX, which a few people are predicting (Russell, Prechter, et al).
(Message edited by public_heel on July 01, 2010) |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1260
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 09:37 am: |
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I agree. In fact, the head and shoulders is a picture of a failed rally at the top of the head. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11968
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 09:30 am: |
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There's another, somewhat less technical way of looking at it... what we saw recently was a "failed rally", which is very bearish, or the right shoulder of a H&S, which is equally bearish.
From here, a rally would be more surprising than a further drop... |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1259
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 07:57 am: |
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Can we share some chart stuff? I realize a person's expectations get built into his observations of the chart - especially for those of us who are more opportunistic and contrarian. But let's try.
I see the SPX has broken through 2 key levels: a recently formed upward trend line and a double tested bottom. It has extended its short-term trend downward, merely continuing in the same trajectory. It feels very much like a trading algorithm, where computers with much trading money have been given ranges of % losses to trade the SPX. Notice the yellow bands which seem to defy the human hand or randomness. This feels mechanical. All that said, we are almost certain to have the 50dma cross the 200dma, which is a definite bearish sign. We are due for a bounce. But when will it come?
 |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 941
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 29, 2010 - 03:39 pm: |
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lots of very negative charts out there. I think the only way we don't go down another 10% is because everyone thinks we are going to. |
Cape_rover
Registered Member
Username: Cape_rover
Post Number: 176
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, June 12, 2010 - 08:09 pm: |
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PH, I don't. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6232
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, June 12, 2010 - 12:16 pm: |
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T/S,
We formed the club with a few people that all are Ohio State fans and post on the same OSU message board. Interesting mix of people so far and the group is small. Engineers, accountants, IT, and businessmen types. I find it interesting to see their views. We only meet twice a year and all other communication is via email as the group spans an area that is about 2-1/2 hours apart. It is a small investment, $300 per quarter.
I still like SDRL but obviously short term there is going to be uncertainty and probably a downdraft of rates as the rigs leave the GOM. But longer term this will be positive for SDRL due to their young fleet and high specification rigs. They are well covered as both '10 and '11 rates are essentially 100% locked in for all rigs. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11881
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, June 12, 2010 - 10:41 am: |
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C/R - Do you have any experience with Breakpoint's "mechanical" strategies? I signed up as a trial member, but am not allowed access to them... |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2727
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Friday, June 11, 2010 - 07:30 pm: |
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K/N,
Cool, I didn't know you were in an investment club. Did you form it with people from your job?
Speaking of SDRL, do you still think it is a buy? They don't have any exposure to the GOM and won't be affected by a drilling moratorium right? |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6231
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, June 11, 2010 - 05:31 pm: |
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TS, personally I tried to get the club to buy DNDN and SDRL last year and they didn't do either. GS was fine by me though, the club so far has done well buying the beat down financials. |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2726
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Friday, June 11, 2010 - 02:54 pm: |
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I'd rather buy MS than GS. No point going into a hurricane if you don't have to. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 912
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, June 10, 2010 - 08:53 pm: |
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"book value of GS is meaningless"
The only thing it means to me is that it's a number that other people look at, so I consider it support. I think Buffet bought in at $115ish. I think that would offer support as well. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11874
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, June 10, 2010 - 07:30 pm: |
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Apropos of nothing, I think the book value of GS is meaningless... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6228
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, June 10, 2010 - 06:14 pm: |
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Milo, My investment club bought GS last week. FWIW. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 908
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, June 10, 2010 - 01:47 pm: |
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Goldman - $119 is the 50% retrace from March 2009 to recent high. I'm thinking about selling puts if we get close. With the stock at $132 the 130 Jan 11 puts are $17. The book value is $128 (yahoo). |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11858
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 08, 2010 - 07:22 pm: |
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C/R - Now I remember BreakPoint. Popeye turned me on to them two(?) years ago. I had two problems with them then: there was just an awful lot of "maybe this will happen, but then maybe this completely different thing will happen". He never left a base uncovered. The other thing was that his predictions, when I could make them out, didn't seem very good. If that was indeed two years ago, then he wasn't the only one who got it wrong.
I'm intrigued by his "mechanical" models, which I don't think he had two years ago. I will look into them when I have time... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 885
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, May 28, 2010 - 01:03 pm: |
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thanks Cape! thanks also Popeye for the email. |
Cape_rover
Registered Member
Username: Cape_rover
Post Number: 171
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, May 28, 2010 - 12:47 am: |
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stockcharts.com provides p$f charts
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=SDRL,P&listNum= |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 879
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, May 27, 2010 - 11:01 am: |
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popeye, is there a free website that does P&F charts? I always have problems find those. |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1269
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 27, 2010 - 09:43 am: |
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Did you notice that the 100 P&F close only chart made a double bottom at 10,000 yesterday? |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1267
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 18, 2010 - 05:32 pm: |
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May 17 was my "something" date. We did have an interday reversal but the rally
should not be a long one. I have no further dates between the May 17th and the
July 26th dates right now.
May 17 was not a marker. July 26 is a marker. I have been trying to figure out
if the decline would be three waves or five waves, and turning down from 5/17
would mean a test of 10,000 area near term after option expiration this week. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 845
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 18, 2010 - 11:45 am: |
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covered EUR on strong move down. going to take a harder look at "X" |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 844
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 18, 2010 - 11:30 am: |
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got long "X" and "EUR" for the day at 52.30 and 1.2370. Will probably cover by day end. Tight stop. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 843
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 18, 2010 - 10:32 am: |
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thanks for the posts popeye! I hope all is well with you. |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1266
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 18, 2010 - 10:26 am: |
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2010-05-17
2010-05-17 DJIA – HERE’S AN IDEA
As I watched the major Cyborgs at work, happily cleaning out portfolios, I felt the usual annoyance at watching unhampered crime at work. The SEC and the exchanges are “hard at work, day and night,” trying to figure out the cause of the infamous “flash-crash.” Granted, there’s a huge amount of data to wade through, and there’s no obvious place for the detectives to start. So they say. Meanwhile, the flash-crash pattern of downward acceleration continues to repeat almost daily, as we can see in chart LL-159. Yes, there was restraint to quit pushing downward at noon, and buyers did test the waters through the afternoon.
LL-159.
But, I’ve added the trends of the daily highs, beginning on April 26th, the black Linear Regressions of the closes, and expanded the scales in an attempt to get a sense of where we’re heading. As I write this, futures have gone from modestly negative to modestly positive, and Europe has opened green. However, the market has tended, despite the noise of the manipulators, to operate on pivots and trajectories, and we clearly are on 3-weeks-long declines. The Dow has about 200 points for the high to rise to its ceiling. The COMPX has to rise 33-1/2 points to close that Friday gap down. We will need to see breaks up through those blue ceiling lines before we can dismiss what potentially could become a major retracement to the downside.
LL-164.
At the risk of being called one of Kanjorski’s conspiratorialists, I would suggest the following.
One must assume that a form of plausible deniability applies to those at the top of the money heap. The exchanges will look out most for the interests of those who generate the greatest fees for them. “Maximize positive cash flow”- lip service to the rest. Their ready assistance to the High-Frequency Traders, through providing co-location, ability to front-run, etc. is but one recent example of skewed interests. The move from outcry to electronic trading on the NYSE has an increasing smell about it.
The SEC’s complete ignorance (as in “ignore”) of the intraday naked shorting problem places them in the “Who are THEY working for?” category, in my mind.
Assuming that their goal truly is to track down a problem that they don’t understand, might I suggest that they don’t act like the TSA, who have a reputation for being politically correct, concentrating on children and grandmothers, while excluding many of the small group which supplies essentially all of the airline terrorists, because that would be profiling.
Until recently, I’ve pointed out how the constant testing goes on, “forking the pig” as I’ve termed it, the naked shorters looking for the right softness to cut loose with a scattergun, market-wide mass of small orders, filtered through the various exchanges. That’s another good place for the SEC detectives to focus. The testing, through High=frequency, sell “fill or kill” orders, finds the true bid. Market-wide, impulse selling to eat slightly down into the bid, then abruptly halting, allows the algorithm to watch the recovery rate of the bid, thus measuring the underlying strength of buyers’ support. When overall conditions are “right,” BANG, the market is hit with what appears to be massive, across the board selling. And, another of those perfectly synchronized, across all indices pivots to the downside appears, seemingly out of the blue. It is fear psychology that works on both humans and machines. And, this damage is initiated far above any point that would trigger any of the circuit breakers I’ve heard of yet.
We’ve watched this phenomenon develop over that past six years or so. The idea of moving the market for personal gain is, of course not new. That’s basically greed, and successful greed breed’s excess. Greed gone wild eventually gets stanched, when enough damage has been, or is being done. In “the old days,” innovators parlayed their ideas and financial acumen to grow great companies, great empires, and great fortunes. But, that took a lot of work, and product had to be provided in exchange for money. Enough never seemed to be enough, and plenty of corners began to be cut. Eventually, Carnegie, Rockefeller, and the other tycoons became regulated. Then, there were the Hunt brothers, who enlisted the Saudi money, to almost successfully “corner the silver market” in the 1960’s. That was going to be greed without delivery of product.
Modern greed gone wild really began with Long Term Capital Management. That was made possible by the evolution of modern computational and communications tools. Since LTCM crashed and burned, new tools for faster trading, and more stealthy trading, have opened up new opportunities for not only more traditional pocket-picking, but for actually moving the entire market at will. That has brought us to a very dangerous point. We may be approaching a point of catastrophic instability for the American, and perhaps global, economic system.
THE BASIC DANGER HERE IS THAT A SINGLE HUMAN FINGER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN GIVEN THE POWER TO PLUNGE THE MARKET AN ENTIRE TRADING RANGE WITHIN ONE OR 2 PERIODS OF NOMINALLY ½ HOUR.
High-Frequency Trading was an innocuous little tax on market activity. A sort of “little hole in the bottom of the boat,” not a serious leak because the bilge pumps easily dealt with it. This was an example of the “innovation that we all were supposed to think is so valuable to the market, and to us.” But, as the rock got turned over to reveal them, the heat became great, and there were promises to stop the practice. People generally saw HFT as the old game of “pay us to steal your money from you.” But, people like the HFT’s don’t wither in the sun. They merely gravitate to some new idea, or at least go into competition with someone still making a profit. And, there may be where the flash-crash came from.
The downward accelerating curves of the indices were easily cut short, as the (possibly only a single one!) major Cyborg kept flooding the market with those waves of small (NAKED) sell orders. Today’s action provides a good example. Naturally the easily spotted end of the run was an essentially equally sharp pivot to the upside, since nobody can in the long term sell without buying shares. History has taught us that they likely could keep the plunges going longer, and deeper, to make their money. Instead, they limited the amplitudes, but increased the frequency of the plunges. Quantitatively, this allowed the naked shorters to effectively “ride on whatever trend was in effect without being too obvious.” They were using the TOOLS of the HFT’s, and similarly could be just another little hole in the bottom of the boat. Looking at long term charts, they too were just a relatively small tax on the system, despite the intraday pain they caused.
But, their story is similar to that of the hedge funds. Lack of competition made early Hedgies enormously profitable. They had the whole pie to themselves. As competition moved in, the early adopters saw their share of the pie diminish. Eventually, hedge funds even began to collapse. Was the flash-crash a first example of an HFT moving in on the old major Cyborg? Take May 6th, for example. Just at the moment when the major Cyborg had the downward momentum going, and dropped his selling pressure, a new competitor would see the ideal opportunity to run onto the field and continue the pressure. A real opportunity for the new kid in the game, because he could just ride the downward wave, with little front-end effort. That would nullify the buying of the first, naked shorter. Unfortunately, it also would exacerbate the downward acceleration. Yes, stop orders, algo trading, and other seriously fast hands likely added to the frenetic drop. But, it is important for the regulators not to go “Ready, Fire, Aim!” How Washington loves to make rules and laws about things they don’t understand!
Intraday naked shorting is potentially more complex than it used to be. Particularly as definitions and rules become blurred. Opportunities to sneak through ever smaller holes in the fabric of old rules, regulations, and new patches, are constantly devised. Life is made very difficult and dangerous for the retail investor who would short. For the Cyborg(s) who work in milliseconds, and whose entire cycle is a half-hour, delivery of shares in 3 days is a pathetic joke.
And, it is a potentially lethal cancer on the system. It should be obvious that the way to deal with the problem is not to fiddle with circuit breakers that kick in long after a plunge is in progress, even possibly in its terminal stage if at all. But, the object should be to eliminate the plunge before it begins. Hit it at its source! The market requires a VACCINATION AGAINST THE CANCER!
So, SEC, look at those pivots. Who’s behind them? Reduce their opportunity at that point. Take away, or otherwise disable their scattergun. Render their activity either too dangerous, or too unprofitable to be worth the effort.
I dare ya!
- Charlie Miller, MIT Retired
- 2010-05-17 |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1265
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, May 15, 2010 - 06:37 pm: |
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Richard Russell Report
May 14, 2010 -- Bloomberg magazine on Buffett's praise of Goldman -- "Buffett swapped his reputation at a cheap price. It's painful to watch Buffett behaving like a hostage to Wall Street."
........................................................
From today's New York Times --Buffalo -- President Obama delivered an upbeat economic forecast and a defense of his economic policies on Thursday, telling a crowd at a manufacturing plant that job growth would continues and the "next year is going to be better than this year."
Russell Response -- Should I give our clueless President a free subscription to "Dow Theory Letters" before he makes an even bigger fool of himself?
...................................................................
In all my years dealing with markets, I've only once before seen the stock market ignored the way it's being ignored now. It was in late-1958. The nation was in a deep recession, and investors were black-bearish on business and the economy. Many talked about "a return of the Great Depression." Others swore they'd "never buy a stock again." The Dow hit a low in late-October at 419.79 (I'll never forget that number), but the Rails continued their decline to the end of the year. However, despite the lower Rails, the Dow refused to go any lower than 419.79 This was a fabulous Dow Theory non-confirmation. A bull market had started in 1949, but the bull market had never produced a speculative third phase (much like the gold bull market of today), I was convinced (along with the non-confirmation) that a third speculative third phase lay somewhere ahead.
I turned very bullish, and I loaded up with stocks, using every single dollar I owned. I also (thanks to Bob Bleiberg, the late great editor of Barron's), wrote a piece for Barron'on the Dow Theory. In the article I wrote why I believed a third phase boom lay ahead, this despite the current recession.
The stock market turned up in early-1958, and it just kept climbing in the face of the deep recession. People actually got angry at the stock market. Investors were calling Wall Street "out of its bloody mind," and that "this was the time to put out shorts." As the year 1958 moved along business started to improve, and by 1959 business was booming.
So I received a valuable lesson. I had never seen investors so disbelieving and angry with the stock market. People were livid as the market marched relentlessly higher in the face of the deep recession.
The lessons of 1957-58 come to my mind as today, the market acts awful in the face of the rosy news coming out of Washington and the Fed and the Treasury and various government agencies. Nobody, it seems, believes what the market is saying. And, of course, what's happening in the market today is much more subtle than what was happening during late-1957.
The stock market always finds new ways to fool the majority of amateurs and professionals. Confession -- I've spent most of my life trying to learn how to "read" the stock market. We'll see if I'm right this time. And yes, I've learned to be alone.
A few days ago I showed (by chart) how mighty Berkshire Hathaway was relentlessly sinking. Berkshire is not alone.
If there's one super-glamor stock on the exchanges today, it's Google. Many people believe that Google is taking over the world. The stock is so high-priced that I have to think Goog is owned mostly by wealthy investors or by funds. But look what's happening to Goog -- the stock is crumbling and is now trading below both its 50-day and 200-day MAs. And what's that telling us about this sick market?
It's been hard, and it's hard, to tell my subscribers that this market is topping out and that you should be OUT of stocks. But that's what you pay me for -- the Russell version of what's happening. My only worry is that too few subscribers listened to me and believed what I was saying. So if you are still in the market, sell your common stocks (not the golds) and get out. I don't care how good or how blue-chip your stocks are, when the bear takes over, he sinks his claws into the throats of all the boys and girls. Declining price/earnings in the bear market alone will cost you, and P/E ratios are now dangerously over 20.
So yeah, I worry about my subscribers. Are they acting on my warnings. Am I sleeping well at night?
One more thing, please don't send me e-mails asking for personal advice. I'm not a registered investment advisor, and I'm not allowed to give personal advice. I put everything I know on these sites (and often more). So please, don't make me work and answer e-mails. I need all the time and energy I have to write these daily sites.
Another comment -- a collapsing stock market is going to scare hell out of everybody. Consequently, they will head for the cellar and close the door after them.. This will bring on initial deflation. But the Obama administration and Bernanke won't tolorate deflation, and they'll open the money spigot even wider. At that point we'll have inflation and lousy business plus hard times. And God help us if my suspicions turn out to be correct, and the market tests the March, 2009 lows.
I've been wondering whether Americans will cut back severely and just start to survive. I think they will. I see a lot of kids, and I think we may be going back to the hippie days. The kids already know that they can't find jobs, and they're back to torn blue jeans and skimpy, torn T-shirts (at least that's what I see here in SoCal). So get ready for changes, and they're not the changes Obama was talking about.
................................................................................ ...................
The most overpaid people in the nation are the pro sports guys. Watch that change. Most sports tickets are being raised. Bad timing for the public and for the sports.
....................................................................
The never-ending Iraq war remains one of the greatest mistakes the US has ever been hoodwinked in to. According to most estimates, more than 100,0000 Iraqis have been killed since the invasion, More than 2 million displaced Iraqi Sunnis, who fled into neighboring Jordan and Syria are adding instability to the situation. Wasted war, wasted lives, wasted money.
No wonder former President Bush (our frat-boy "War President) has completely disappeared. Has any politician ever left the scene as quickly and completely? Bush and the Iraq war -- two American disasters. Lets hope that Obama doesn't prove to be a third US disaster. So far, I think he's heading that way.
This from the Christian Science Monitor -- A third side effect of the Iraq war waged purportedly in democracy's name is that it came at the expense of America's already frayed reputation in the Muslim world. Far from being seen as a benevolent liberator, the United States was perceived as a blundering behemoth, and an abusive hypocritical one to boot."
.............................................................
TODAY'S MARKET ACTION:
My PTI was down 6 at 6116. The moving average at 6075, so my PTI is bullish by 41.
The Dow was down 162.79 to 10620.16.
Transports were down 86.04 to 4487.73.
Utilities were down 2.92 to 37.9.82
NASDAQ was down 47.51 to 2346.85.
S&P was down 21.76 to 1135.68.
June crude was down 2.47 at 71.93.
Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 6.87 bn.
There were 375 advances and 412 declines on the NYSE.
There were 23 new highs and 20 new lows.
The Big Money Breadth Index was down 10 at 828.
Dollar Index was up 1.06 at 86.40. Euro was down 1.78 at 123.87. Yen was up 0.53 to 108.27. Currency prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.
Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 3.345. Yield on the long T-bond was 4.457. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.152%.
June gold was up 1.70 to 1230.90. June silver was down 0.195 to 19.29.
My Most Active Stocks Index was down 15 at 221.
GDX was down 0.49 to 53.15.
HUI was up 3.49 to 487.46.
CRB Commodity Index was down 7.23 at 258.55.
The VIX was up 4.56 to 31.24.
Late notes -- The market is crumbling, in the face of rosy news this is the worst kind of action. The market is severely oversold now, and if we don't get a bounce next week, it's "Katie, bar the door." My PTI was down 6 to 6116. MA was 6075, so my PTI remains bullish by a shrinking 41, lowest in weeks. June gold gave up less than two bucks today, which is great relative strength action. GDX closed higher today, which is bullish for gold. This market action is catching investors by complete surprise, and as such it is proving very costly. Billions in paper values are being lost.
Dow down near 160 today and Transports down over 80. New highs on the NYSE down to 23, but new lows up at 20. This series ready to reverse with new lows about to surpass new highs, always a serious technical event. Breadth on the NYSE 412 higher, 2294 lower, meaning that the great majority of NYSE stocks are getting whacked. Down volume on the NYSE a fearsome 96.3% of up + down volume, almost a panic condition.
Minutes near the close, the Dow was down over 200, but very late buying brought the Dow back to down 160. That smacked of "buying the dip," a process that I find bearish at this point (are certain interests trying to make the market "look better" for the weekend readers?) Dow came back over 60 points during the last few minutes. Who's kidding who? Manipulation or old fashioned "painting the tape"?
Today is Friday, and Fridays are usually interesting, because that's when we learn whether traders are willing to go into the weekend with more stocks -- or less stocks.
Lone wolf Russell
..........................................................
Finally a crack in the top-secret Federal Reserve. The Senate has voted unanimously for an audit of the Fed's action during the financial crisis. Even Congress has grown sick on the secrecy which the Fed enjoys. What the hell are these guys doing, and for whom or to whom? The Russell advice -- get rid of the Fed. And with them get rid of their damnable fiat money.
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I just saw (Times obit) my once-girl friend, Suzanne Mosby (then Suzanne Marcus) died of lung cancer. She was 80. Suzanne was a gorgeous, statuesque blond, the daughter of a NYSE member. Her brother, Wayne, an ex-marine, was one of my best buddies. Suzanne went down to Vogue to apply for a modeling job. One month later she appeared on the cover of Vogue. Later Suzanne went to Cuba, where she hung out with Ernest Hemingway. Any way, RIP Suzanne, you were one of a kind. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11664
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 09:10 am: |
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Popeye... could you post that chart, or link to it? |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1264
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 09:02 am: |
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The 100 point P&F chart competed a head and shoulders top yesterday. |
Cape_rover
Registered Member
Username: Cape_rover
Post Number: 168
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 10, 2010 - 08:35 pm: |
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From the author last night...
The EU announced a new bailout facility for any EU member nation that may go bust just after the opening of Asian trade. This has caused a selloff in the dollar, boosted the Euro and given the US equities futures a lift to the tune of better than 2.5%.
So far it looks like a real move. It seems like the combination of this Pan-Euro permanent bailout scheme and short to intermediate term technical oversold conditions will produce some kind of a rally. How far will it go? Will it put in a bottom here and resume the bull market? Impossible to say as yet.
If this rally should fail quickly then a bearish scenario for at least a couple of months is likely. If it lasts through Wednesday then it probably has legs and the correction may be over (for now).
(Message edited by cape_rover on May 10, 2010)
(Message edited by cape_rover on May 10, 2010) |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6186
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 10, 2010 - 09:41 am: |
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Cape, can you provide a quick synopsis. Site is blocked at work. I will take a look tonight. |
Cape_rover
Registered Member
Username: Cape_rover
Post Number: 167
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 10, 2010 - 07:01 am: |
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Covers the crash of last week and its implications. I've only been following this guy for a few weeks. Interesting info he provides.
http://vimeo.com/11613608 |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 803
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, May 07, 2010 - 07:16 am: |
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thanks for the post popeye! |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1263
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 09:22 pm: |
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I am glad and happy that so many of you used my April 21st sell marker to go
short. Congrats are in order.
Bringing you up to date, I have a "something" for May 17th that may turn out to
be nothing, but my next marker is July 26th. This should be a low but we will
have to wait and see.
Noticed last week that three gurus that peddle the Elliott Wave have their lows
in June, around the last week. I can compare notes with them and Wendall.
The good news is that the percentage of stocks above their 10 DMA hit a low of 2
today and that should cause some sort of rally. The low of the DJIA might be a
higher support zone that the 9500 area on the chart.
Good luck on your trading. It's time to plant your spinach. |
Popeye
Registered Member
Username: Popeye
Post Number: 1261
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 11:05 pm: |
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I am wait and see on gold. I have order in to write two $70 @6.80 on AEM and missed them as it hit 6.50. Will cancel and see what develops. Chart on AEM is still bullish on daily and weekly charts. Lower support is $930 but it should hold higher. No opinion right now.
You should have sold every thing on or after April 21st as I suggested We are getting close to the oversold area and should have a bounce from ther, but the question is how long will we stay in the oversold? I sold two RIMM options at 5.55 and they closed 1.92 today. Will cover if them go down another dollar. |
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