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Message |
    
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1126
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, September 02, 2010 - 11:31 am: | 
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ADS - Has anyone looked at ADS? The chart is really juicy for a short but I have no idea if there is a fundamental case for a short. With my limited analysis, I'd say it's not screaming short, it seems fine. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12317
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, August 27, 2010 - 10:19 pm: |
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The reason behind CRM's fantastic performance... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1064
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 09:33 am: |
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feel good I sold/short the euro at the top, too bad I got out way too soon! |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1044
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 11:35 am: |
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just look over some long term charts. It still very much looks like a bear market rally to me.
I wonder if we will see a wave of tax selling this fall. I suppose the question is how many people or institutions have gains that they want to realize before rates go up. On the other hand a higher dividend rate may trigger reduced dividends and boost corporate buy backs longer term. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12144
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 11:52 am: |
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I covered my calls last week, not because I was worried, but because I thought I had better use for the money... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1038
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 09:42 am: |
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AMZN - 200 day at 126. Downtrend breakout. Still holding short calls (oct 140) but nervous.
(Message edited by miloandbono on August 04, 2010) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12088
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 23, 2010 - 07:02 pm: |
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There's no way, at least not October, which doesn't even have one intervening earnings report. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1019
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, July 23, 2010 - 04:18 pm: |
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AMZN - it's a little scary and on massive volume. Maybe it was an options thing, but I'm a little nervous. My options are October 140's. You have to think there is no way, but yet there is! |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12087
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 23, 2010 - 03:27 pm: |
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Up $10 from the open... I really have to wonder about that. Looks very suspicious, but I can't think of a rationale. I guess on a day like today, once the drop is arrested, you get a tsunami of short-sellers covering.
They had a bad miss, and a bad outlook (for the only quarter between now and January expiration). It's all in their operating margins, too, which would not seem to be particularly volatile on a quarterly basis.
(Message edited by public_heel on July 23, 2010) |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 1018
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, July 23, 2010 - 01:55 pm: |
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AMZN - I added a 2nd contract (short 140 call) last week when it was trading $120. This morning I thought I was a genius! Now, I can't believe it's run up $10 from the open. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12086
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 23, 2010 - 12:34 pm: |
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AMZN - Sold January $140 calls for $3.40, a 46% annualized return.
They have only one earnings report between now and January expiration, and I don't see them pulling $143 out of the hat... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12082
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 04:38 pm: |
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They would have to have one hell of a bad earnings report on August 20 to go below $75. For all I know, it may be a good report. This stock will make a great short someday, but revenue growth has to taper off, first... |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 601
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 04:13 pm: |
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PH:
I have reviewed their pricing structure for their Cloud2
see:http://www.salesforce.com/crm/editions-pricing.jsp?d=70130000000EyM4&internal=tr ue
They will need a truck load of new customers regularly to increase revenue at the rates posted. Plus, there was a comment that Microsoft will also be getting into this arena. Consequently, when CRM went up dramatically today I took some $ and purchased Aug 75 puts for $0.35 as a high risk/reward should the screws be put out sooner than later to squeeze out any competative nature they may have. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12077
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 03:23 pm: |
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With these companies whose sales have been rising since Day 1, you have to wait until sales stop rising, or nearly so. Don't know when that will be with CRM. When that happens, though, they'll be "just another company", but holdever sentiment will still believe they are going much higher... |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 600
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 12:17 pm: |
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PH,
Thanks for your insight on CRM.
You have been right. Even today it is still up at this time.
Would you suggest November puts or is that too soon?
gldndog |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 12064
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 16, 2010 - 09:33 pm: |
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CRM is a company following the CROX/SBUX/TASR/KKD path of a maturing product that is still priced for wild growth.
I'll be looking to sell calls and then, when their sales peak, buy puts... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 925
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, June 21, 2010 - 11:48 am: |
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the only thing I know for sure is that I'll be surprised and wrong at some point. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11921
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, June 21, 2010 - 11:22 am: |
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Wasn't it you who said that "everyone" will be playing the right shoulder? If so, then the right shoulder will probably be higher than expected... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 924
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, June 21, 2010 - 10:07 am: |
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I'm not doing it, but I wonder it this is the point to start averaging into short positions. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 920
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, June 18, 2010 - 05:23 pm: |
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okay, so we agree, killer will probably be right! |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1240
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Friday, June 18, 2010 - 04:11 pm: |
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This is a relief rally from the Euro panic. If the PIIGS can actually get capital (which they now have), there is no imminent disaster. The can is kicked further down the road. That said, I've got my shorts ready to go!
:-) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11916
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, June 18, 2010 - 04:06 pm: |
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Because everyone and his brother (Killernut is just cousin, so he disagrees) knows that this rally is phony. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 919
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, June 18, 2010 - 02:53 pm: |
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I realize my AMZN call may be a little bold but I feel sorry for anyone short APPL. It's just been a monster.
Heel, I have to think your $350 call is safe but I wouldn't want to be short the $300's. The broad market is going to have some serious head winds between S&P 1125 and 1150. Everyone and his brother is going to try to short the right shoulder of the H&S formation. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 916
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 16, 2010 - 11:17 am: |
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my gut says closer to $100 before $150 for TA reasons. I changed my position to being short a 140 call. I was short the stock initially. I have a small position. Short 1 Jan 11 call. I'm down a little. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11895
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 16, 2010 - 10:19 am: |
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Not that you asked, but I think that IPad and other readers will hurt AMZN a lot. That said, I think that AMZN is a fantastic company, so I'm hesitant to bet against them... |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 596
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 16, 2010 - 10:13 am: |
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M&B
Milo, I lost more money on AMZN last year than everything else combined. I purchased puts and I was totally on the wrong side.
Today AMZN is approaching $128.00. I know you are watching this one, do you think AMZM has enough gas to reach for a new high or do you see fizzle in your crystal ball?
gldndog |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11852
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 08, 2010 - 10:27 am: |
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Sold one AAPL Jan 2011 $350 call. If I'm right, I get $650. If I'm wrong... I think that'll require a much happier market than I envisage. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 906
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 08, 2010 - 10:06 am: |
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changing mind. may wait for a market bounce. 200 day MA at about $120.
(Message edited by miloandbono on June 08, 2010)
edit again - only 100 shares. going to try it. staying short.
(Message edited by miloandbono on June 08, 2010) |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 905
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 08, 2010 - 09:59 am: |
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short a little AMZN. Not crazy about my entry at $118 with the market near recent lows... but I still think we'll see it near $100 in the near future. Stop at 128 for now. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11768
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 27, 2010 - 03:38 pm: |
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Clearly it's due for P/E compression.
It has been due for PE compression from Day 1. Never seems to happen... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 884
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, May 27, 2010 - 03:21 pm: |
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after the market bounce is over (vague I know), I'm going to take a crack a getting short AMZN. I think a move to about $100 is in the cards. Clearly it's due for P/E compression.
I'd certainly get bearish again at 1140ish in the S&P. I think anything above 1100 is questionable. |
Wallwakky
Registered Member
Username: Wallwakky
Post Number: 493
Registered: 01-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 10:48 am: |
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Thanks, Heel. I have had this one a few years and have seen how trying to trade it can be costly. Right now it appears to be meat for Timothy Sykes wannabes. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11615
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 09:24 am: |
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Wakky - I just don't trade Pink Sheet stocks if I can help it. The bid/ask numbers are unreliable at best, and the market makers are relatively (completely?) unregulated. If they want to cheat, who's going to do anything about it?
It's one thing to buy for a long-term hold, when several pennies don't matter all that much, but day-trading is impossible... |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1177
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 09:11 am: |
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Seems to me that an individual market maker can do a trade that never becomes publicly available as a market bid or ask. It is reported as a transaction, but the purchase goes into his trading account or the sale comes from his trading account. Is that fraud, or is that just the market maker putting income in his pocket? |
Wallwakky
Registered Member
Username: Wallwakky
Post Number: 492
Registered: 01-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 09:03 am: |
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Heel, Good point. Another day my broker explained that my sell at .90 didn't fill when the market jumped up to .92X.96 and someone's trade filled at .92, because the .92 was a "phony bid", meaning the mm or ecn was unreachable.
Could a sophisticated trader route an .80 limit ell through an unreachable ecn that a .80 limit buy reached through one of the few brokers that could reach the ecn, when the best inside market for all other market makers was .90X1.01? (Perhaps they just happened to have the same broker.) Would that work? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11611
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 03, 2010 - 06:06 pm: |
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Wakky - How do you even know what the real bid/ask is on a Pink Sheet stock? |
Wallwakky
Registered Member
Username: Wallwakky
Post Number: 491
Registered: 01-2005
| | Posted on Monday, May 03, 2010 - 12:33 pm: |
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Hola. I haven't seen you guys around for a while. I have a a general question specific to sorting pink sheet stocks but possibly just as applicable to other issues.
Is there a legal or illegal way trigger a trade below the best bid? A broker said what occurred was because an order was placed though an unreachable market maker. Although my offer to buy was the best inside offer, a trade went off below mine. This morning the same thing happened a dime beneath the bid, which is a lot an a dollar stock.
Heel. See you at the Regal Beagle?
TIA |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 673
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 31, 2010 - 06:55 am: |
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APPL - Iphone is really amazing compared to the other touch screen phones I've used. I have to think APPL will have to develop a phone with a touch screen and a standard keyboard (like the env touch) to lure more of the corporate people. I think appl is behind on the enterprise integration too. It won't be long though... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11451
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 - 08:53 pm: |
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RIMM - Apple is developing an iPhone for Verizon (apparently), which provokes Fleckenstein to say the following:
this will be the final nail in the coffin for RIMM, as they are really the odd man out in the smart-phone market, for reasons I've discussed many times in the past (its entrenched base notwithstanding). It's possible that RIMM could make the numbers tomorrow and wax poetically about the future. But if so, it will be a chance to price up and begin to accumulate longer-dated puts, because RIMM's goose is cooked |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 633
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 - 10:18 am: |
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PH: Sorry, yes, buy to open. As you know I am not used to options, but learning.
Robert |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11442
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 - 10:05 am: |
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O/H - I hope you mean buying put contracts, not writing (selling) them! |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 632
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 - 10:00 am: |
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CTIC: I am writing put option contracts on this company. The strike date is May, price 1.00 and cost was .60. This is a GTZ if there ever was one. There was a no confidence vote with zero yea votes at the adivsory panel meeting. There are no available shares to short I can find.
Robert |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 631
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, March 29, 2010 - 08:23 am: |
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Hi all: I was having Starbucks coffee yesterday with the VP of one the sporting goods store outlets. The conversation was about Chinese New Year, a time when all shipping of goods back to the US halts during this celebration. American companies accommodate for this by increasing inventory accordingly, and after the celebration shipping continues. Not so this year. It appears Chinese businessmen are doing well enough that the women, who mostly work in the factories, opt to extend their celebration with such "gentlemen" and the factories are under staffed by as much as a speculative 80 percent.
Just passing this thought on.
Robert |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11295
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, March 01, 2010 - 08:49 am: |
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I think it's safe to say that it did great in 2008 and terrible in 2009. Last year, good stocks went up a lot, and bad ones went up even more (seems like)... |
Sivleyd
Moderator
Username: Sivleyd
Post Number: 1106
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, March 01, 2010 - 06:04 am: |
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Has anyone seen more recent results for the
Piotroski method? |
Treesloth
Registered Member
Username: Treesloth
Post Number: 2643
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Sunday, February 28, 2010 - 09:12 pm: |
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Dated, but a fairly interesting approach. I think we've seen that valuation doesn't matter when shorting unless you have very deep pockets. They did get on the dark side in April of 08..pretty good timing.
http://www.designs.valueinvestorinsight.com/bonus/bonuscontent/docs/Montier-Shor ting.pdf
(Message edited by tree-sloth on February 28, 2010) |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 541
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 09:07 am: |
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out too early..... market dropping pretty good. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 533
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 24, 2010 - 02:08 pm: |
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covered shorts for small loss. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 531
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, February 23, 2010 - 10:06 am: |
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bet we see some volume today. I'm almost even on my shorts from last week. Hoping for good profit in the next couple of weeks. |
Gap
Registered Member
Username: Gap
Post Number: 1197
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 18, 2010 - 08:42 am: |
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There's a customer-driven "See a Kindle" program.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html?ie=UTF8&docId=1000230941 |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6070
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 17, 2010 - 02:45 pm: |
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Gosh, I assume they are only available thru Amazon and not in any stores. I don't know. I had never seen one in real life until Thanksgiving last year. As I understand it the screen actually uses an inking technology that "writes" the ink electronically to the screen which "holds" the ink in place until it is "rewritten" with each page turn. Requires no power (or very little) between "page turns" and allows for long battery life as long as the internet connection is turned off. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 513
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 17, 2010 - 11:45 am: |
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Killer, do you know of any store that displays it? Love to see one. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 11222
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 17, 2010 - 10:40 am: |
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PH, How many times do you step on or sit on your books. I imagine the kindle would see equal pig feet hits.
It's not the same. The chance of my stepping or sitting on something (or spilling Coke on it) increases geometrically with its fragility. Reading glasses are 1000 times more likely to be stepped on than, say, a ballpoint pen. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 6067
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 17, 2010 - 10:33 am: |
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OT, Somehow I missed the responses on the Kindle until Milo posted today.
Anyway we ended up getting my daughter a Kindle for Christmas. Wonderful toy.
PH, How many times do you step on or sit on your books. I imagine the kindle would see equal pig feet hits.
edited to add "Also the cover that we bought for her kindle has some pretty good padding and has withstood a couple drops as well as a couple other pretty good bangs."
Milo, Color might be nice for magazines but the screen technology is quite amazing for books. Perfectly readable with selectable font sizes. I pick the smallest font I can read to get more words on a page as I am a fast reader and this makes reading even faster.
(Message edited by KillerNut on February 17, 2010) |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 512
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 17, 2010 - 10:16 am: |
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Getting short a little "X" US Steel and FCX Freeport. May get creamed. I just feel this may be a good spot. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10863
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 05, 2009 - 01:43 pm: |
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I'd be tempted to buy one, but I know that it'd be only a matter of days before I sat or stepped on it. When they make them out of rubber, I'll be more interested... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 274
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Saturday, December 05, 2009 - 01:28 pm: |
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Kindle - I don't, but I get about 10 magazines a month and I hate how much paper it wastes, even if I recycle. I may wait until they come in color. |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5994
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 05, 2009 - 01:18 pm: |
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Besides that does anyone have the Kindle. My daughter wants one and they look pretty amazing. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10860
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, December 05, 2009 - 07:54 am: |
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AMZN is amazing. Look what they're into now... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5989
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, December 03, 2009 - 08:01 am: |
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OH, not me. I haven't been short anything other than put options since about May. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10848
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 02, 2009 - 02:35 pm: |
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No big deal... and being short like that probably gave you the courage to buy extra DNDN. |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 620
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 02, 2009 - 02:26 pm: |
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PH: Yes I really did short at 30, but if you recall we joked about the number of shares, it was 10. Even so, I now have a $1,000.00 loss 
R |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10847
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 02, 2009 - 01:08 pm: |
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one of you were somewhat aghast that AMZN was trading at 30
Must have been me. I'm aghast pretty much all the time, over one thing or another.
AMZN seems to permanently trade at extremely high PE's. Over the last 3+ years, the daily average has been 58. Even in last Fall's panic, they traded below 30 for only a week. There doesn't seem to be much point in betting against them just based on PE.
I'd guess I'd just follow the old dictum, "buy what you use every day". I use AMZN all the time. They have a revolutionary product that has managed to stay cutting edge all these years. Furthermore, they sell things cheap, which is important these days. They seem to be well on their way to becoming the WalMart of the Internet.
Did you really short at $30 and hang on all this time? That must be some kind of record. Your tolerance for pain must be awfully high.
Now, since I was so wrong at $30, perhaps I'll be equally wrong at $140...
(Message edited by public_heel on December 02, 2009) |
Openhigher
Moderator
Username: Openhigher
Post Number: 619
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, December 02, 2009 - 12:41 pm: |
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KN and PH: So this goes back a ways, but one of you were somewhat aghast that AMZN was trading at 30, so I shorted the stock, to refresh your recollection. So, now what do you think??? I am not going to cover and would do a major dollar cost average to short more, but the truth is, now I am thinking it may go to 200. There is already a price target out today of 160, hence up again 2 or 3 bucks.
Thoughts, Robert |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 214
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Friday, November 06, 2009 - 08:52 am: |
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I tend to think my short term nature makes my long term ideas nearly impossible, but I'm working on it.
I have about 2/3 in cash and the dollar going up won't make me feel like I have more money, but I would feel better about investing if the S&P was closer to 900-950. That might give me a chance to re-buy gold. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10752
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, November 06, 2009 - 03:00 am: |
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I hate to make short-term bets that conflict with my long-term philosophy. You never know when the future might come early.
You guys are probably right, though. Anyway, my big cash position is a tacit bet on the $US, I guess... |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5978
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, November 05, 2009 - 09:31 pm: |
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I've been thinking of buying some UUP as a short term (2-3 month) hold as a hedge. Seems to me that the market is in a holding pattern and the odds are pretty even to the direction of the next move. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 213
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Thursday, November 05, 2009 - 09:13 pm: |
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Someone bought 300,000 Nov 23 calls for the UUP Double bull dollar ETF. I don't believe they have enough shares to cover if exercised. I'm sure they don't plan to carry the trade until exercised, but I wonder if this is a big bet on tomorrow morning.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/uup-halted |
Killernut
Registered Member
Username: Killernut
Post Number: 5932
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Monday, September 21, 2009 - 11:22 am: |
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I think the WYNN IPO of their Macau casino is going better than expected. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 118
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, September 21, 2009 - 09:49 am: |
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covered WYNN short. It tried to break $68 at the open, and 20 mins later it's $4 higher. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10552
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, September 20, 2009 - 05:45 pm: |
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I really don't have any idea. I don't know how much it's done, don't know what effect it has when it's done, and don't know how much covering of naked shorts helps fuel rebounds.... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 116
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Sunday, September 20, 2009 - 05:41 pm: |
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PH - Do you think the naked short selling enforcement will have any real impact when the market turns down? I'm wondering if it will slow the rate of decline. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 101
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 09:06 pm: |
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interesting! thank you |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10524
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 07:41 pm: |
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My thinking is that the market is only open one hour out of five. If something really bad happens, it's much more likely to happen off-hours.
In this latest runup, the market is up 10% (uncompounded) overnight and 35% during market hours. Since 3/26, the cumulative overnight gains are only 2.5%, while market-hours gains are 24.7%
I think this may have something to do with money managers who've been on the sidelines getting back in in order to show some returns for 2009. They don't buy off-hours, so their positive influence is almost entirely felt during the day.
This is very different than the 10/2007-3/2009 bear market, when 1/3 of the losses were off-hours.
Because of huge positions in junior oil plays, I am unusually net long right now, and I feel better with some more insurance...
(Message edited by public_heel on September 15, 2009) |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 100
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 07:03 pm: |
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"Stuff Happens" - is your thought that you are betting the overnight markets will lean to the weak side and we will drift higher as the day goes on? Or are you thinking the big drop is coming? |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10521
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 04:23 pm: |
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And I have started a Stuff Happens trade, buying a big chunk of SDS on-the-close, to be sold on-the-open the next morning... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 99
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 04:12 pm: |
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I doubt I hold it for more than a week. Surely not all 1.3 billion Chinese will visit in that amount of time....
It's a small trade and I know I'm p*ssing in the wind. |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10520
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 04:03 pm: |
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You're up against "Chinese arithmetic" there, as in "what if every person in China came to Macau and lost $10 at the Wynn casino?" |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 98
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 03:59 pm: |
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AIG - bought a small amount of AIG 10 and 20 puts today. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 97
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 03:52 pm: |
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WYNN - took a small short in WYNN today, it's over bought and bumping up against resistance... plus Cramer says it's going higher. Looking for a move to 68 or so. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 63
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, August 24, 2009 - 03:21 pm: |
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I don't think we will ever again go to the price in the 30 year treasury we saw at Christmas. The price in the futures were in the 140's. My take away from the article it is that a move higher in the price of treasury's (lower in rates)from the current price and a move higher in the dollar would buy us time to sell more and more debt at a lower rate. Pretty appealing to the guys selling the mountain of debt. I think it could happen short term.
(Message edited by miloandbono on August 24, 2009) |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10403
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, August 24, 2009 - 01:36 pm: |
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I'm not sure I buy that. The flight to "safety" that started last fall won't last forever. Eventually, people around the world will realize that when the U.S. economy tanks, and the U.S. stock market tanks, that is not good for the $US. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 62
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Monday, August 24, 2009 - 12:41 pm: |
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"The only option for the Fed/Treasury is to somehow spur organic demand for USD and Tsys. Nothing like a crash in equities and commodities to do that. And if the Fed and Treasury are incentivized for a risk asset crash to provide inflows into the USD/Tsy "safe haven" trade, why bet against it?"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/157922-how-to-trade-using-game-theory |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 52
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, August 19, 2009 - 12:16 pm: |
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we'll see how I feel about it at the end of the day.... zoom... |
Public_heel
Moderator
Username: Public_heel
Post Number: 10385
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, August 19, 2009 - 11:49 am: |
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$45 was too close for me. I sold COF $50 calls, and WYNN $80 calls, too, both January 2010.... |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 50
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Wednesday, August 19, 2009 - 11:33 am: |
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oh, I sold some COF 45 calls for $1.80 and I own some silver puts in case we see some near term dollar strength. |
Gldndog
Registered Member
Username: Gldndog
Post Number: 554
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, August 19, 2009 - 12:12 am: |
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I have been watching NILE since April. It is in a steady upward channel. I nearly pushed the button to buy puts at $40.00.
I am right now not interested in pushing NILE buttons, even though I think this internet store is not going to make it selling diamonds at a time when people are theoretically saving money. Diamonds are not a priority must buy item.
BTW. It is thanks to 11wallers who kept me from pushing the button. This is a great site.
Currently I am holding puts in: WMT, ANF, KLAC and I purchased TGT puts today. |
Miloandbono
Registered Member
Username: Miloandbono
Post Number: 44
Registered: 08-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 09:02 pm: |
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just checked them.... wynn and nile are 2 of the highest in short interest... dangerous |
